EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 14.02.2013
EUR has jumped to 1.3519 yesterday, and then quickly reversed reaching 1.3425, after this massive almost 100 pips drop, the currecny pulled back to 1.3450-60 area ahead of the G20 finance ministers' summit today. Currently we are trading around 1.3440 level, but the price may increase a little bit in search of sell opportunities. My yesterday's forecast was SHORT below 1.3490, and to 1.3430 is gives you 60 good pips, i think most of you have taken them. For today i am SHORT again as on Daily something like falling star candle can be seen. The candle is not clear enough to represent the falling star, but is much similar. This shows that market wanted to raise the price, but finally bull gave up and upside has failed then the price returned to the levels before the upside wave. This means there are problems for bull above 1.3490. At 1.3520 on Weekly we also may see the MA200 passing, so we must have a really EUR positive news or Dollar negative, to close above that MA200.
Tdoay i think that every upside will be stopped at 1.3460-70 area if reached, and if not reached you may enter SHORT around 1.3450-60 with 20 pips SL for example. On H4 we have a resistance @ 1.3460, and support is yesterday's low. Breaking of the support will increase downside pressure with target 1.3360, another support is 1.3340, we need a confirmed break of at least 1 H4 bar below to continue downside to 1.3250. Break below that last will destroy the upside and all eyes will be on 1.3170 and 1.3000. To the upside a huge negative Ichimoku on H4 will reject any upside moves, so i think EUR drop from yesterday will continue today and maybe tomorrow. But with the plenty of economic data today search for a better price to sell.
GOLD is in a flag formation which suggests further fall. Target is around 1630 and the resistance is around 1654. All Daily indicators point to the downside.
For today:
SHORT EUR below 1.3460 SL 1.3480 TP 1.3360
LONG EUR above 1.3520 SL 1.3500 TP 1.3575-90
SHORT GOLD below 1654 SL 1657 TP 1630 and below
LONG GOLD above 1654 SL 1650 TP 1664 (high risk of losses)
Good luck!
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 14, 2013 at 5:51am -
:) 1.3250 is the key :)
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Comment by Konwerska on February 14, 2013 at 7:51am -
Thank you, great analysis, I really like them czytać.Pozdrawiam
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Comment by ala bala on February 14, 2013 at 9:18am
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"My yesterday's forecast was SHORT below 1.3490, and to 1.3430 is gives you 60 good pips, i think most of you have taken them."
Not quite correct, it gave 20 pips stop loss instead.
"SHORT EUR below 1.3490 SL 1.3510 TP 1.3410-1.3360"
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 14, 2013 at 9:40am
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@ ala bala - maybe you should give a better forecast :) you're good in maths i see
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Comment by ala bala on February 14, 2013 at 10:02am
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I can't uderstand what you mean.
Wish you more luck with the practical application of your forecasts.
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 14, 2013 at 10:08am
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My position SHORT @ 1.3430 TP 1.3340 closed +90 pips
Currently EUR battles with the MA200 @ 1.3340 on H4, breaking below may lead to another 80-90 pips down. GOLD is waiting for any decision at G20 summit today. ECB warned ealier that strong EUR may bring the inflation below the target level - this is the main reason for huge EUR drop today
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Comment by Cocicka on February 14, 2013 at 10:12am
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Vladimir you are help me a lot with my tradings, thank you a lot!!!
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Comment by Zainatu Rahmah on February 14, 2013 at 11:51am -
Your analysis is very great and very helpful for me. success always for you "Vladimir Mihaylov" was amazing. Thank you.
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 14, 2013 at 5:33pm
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EUR has entered in a consonidation mode as it dropped heavily today. I expect EUR to retrace back to 1.3390-1.3400 before next leg down. We have an Ichimoku border on Weekly around 1.3300 and i think this week it will cap the downside - but i am not absolutely sure about that. Tomorrow i expect some recovery and maybe a week close around 1.3320.
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Comment by Tancho Tanchov on February 14, 2013 at 5:47pm -
Tomorrow ends the Feb investment cycle and take profit could occur in other word eur could fall back sharply 1.30-1.31 could be reached. Hehe will be great if I am correct :)
Comment
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