As expected though ECB left the rate unchanged EUR continued to fall but more slowly and on Friday it reached 1.2690. Currently EUR is trading @ 1.2727, but is stopped by the resistance @ 1.2730 which if broken will lead to 1.2770-80 where is the border of the descending channel from there of course we shall have 2 options - to continue the upside to 1.2830 or to start new selling for 1.2605. Today euromembers will decide whether to make the next money transfer to Greece - but i think the more correct question is not whether but when? If for some reason the decision today is delayed, this will increase the downside pressure over the EUR and we may easily go below 1.2700. Next support is 1.2660-50 and if broken we may go even to 1.2605. On the other side a daily close above 1.2760 will signal a correction move higher has started and that may extend to 1.2915-30. We need a daily close above 1.2980 to restore the upside. This for now cannot happen.

GOLD is more likely to continue rising, there was some hesitation between 1725-1735 zone, the problem will be 1742-45 resistance. But i think the move will be to the upside so my forecast will be long.

For today:

LONG EUR on H4 close above 1.2740 SL.1.2710 TP1.2780-1.2830 (here is 50/50 the possibility to win or loose, but the market is very thin with too many reversals and going in one direction is a luxury)

SHORT EUR @ 1.2820 SL 1.2845 TP 1.2740

SHORT EUR below 1.2780 SL 1.2795 TP 1.27 and below.

Currently indicators are pointing to the downside, so be careful.

LONG GOLD above 1728  SL1720 TP 1741-43 (quick drops to 1720 are still possible)

Good luck!

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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 12, 2012 at 7:53am

EUR dropped heavily after bad data from Germany, hourly close above 1.2730 needed to restore the upside. European leaders' meeting starts along with the start of the european trading session.


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