Yestarday EUR bulls showed everyone they are not dead, just sleeping. EUR has cleared all the loss during the first week of the year supported by the mr.Draghi's speech after the expected ECB decision and S&P release. Also pressure over the USD made the increase of the jobless claims which shows that more stimulus are needed to stabilize the weak american recovery. And in the time where we can see a weak recovery in the USA, there is no any like this in the EU - on the one side is mrs.Merkel who says the end of the crisis is far, and there will be still more difficulties to come, and on the other side is mr.Draghi who says that the recovery in the EU will start this year. So one of both is a liar, we shall see who is telling the truth in the following months. According to me i will trust mrs.Merkel. Still ECB has done nothing more than giving money to Greece and extending the time for paying them back. So what will expect from yesterday's decision:

Seems that noone cares about the further actions of the ECB, the market is only influenced by the interest rate. If we can trust mr.Draghi maybe there will be no rate cut in the next two or three meetings. This is giving bulls a comfortable support @ 1.3000 which proved very very strong. In this relation i may say that 1.3520 is only a matter of time. We start the year with a very high volatility and going 300 pips down and 300 pips up within 10 days. Looking at the monthly frame once again shows that we are again at the edge of the negative Ichimoku which will reject the price to the downside in 2 months (please,note this is my opinion, there are no any facts to support this) or maybe even this month if breaking of 1.3310 is unsuccessful. Weekly frame is bullish wwith some close one to other resistances. First resistance comes @ 1.3310, second @ 1.3360, then 1.3450 and finally 1.3520 where the MA200 passes.

On Daily we are going to test 1.3300 for the fourth or fifth time, maybe this time it will be broken, but assuming today is Friday and yesterday we had a huge 260 pips rally i think any break will be short lived and there will be a pullback at least to 1.3280-90.

H4 is also extremely bullish, but seems that ahead of 1.3300 bulls are uncertain.

Now a little about the supports - first is @ 1.3260, then 1.3220 and finally 1.3170, breaking the last is not interesting right now.

GOLD has made some progress to the upside, but with the huge risk interest, GOLD couldn't show its tallent. It will remain waiting for a better time. Now the price is capped by the resistance line 1675 and the best price to go is around 1685-90 before the next move (down or up is now unclear).

For today:

it's very difficult to tell you the entry point as we are close to the imortant level but i will try

LONG above 1.3250 SL 1.3240 TP 1.3310-1.3340

SHORT below 1.3350 SL 1.3360 TP 1.3300-1.3280  (maybe later american session)

SHORT GOLD below 1670 SL 1674 TP 1661 on daily close below 1661 reenter SHORT

LONG GOLD above 1673 SL 1668 TP 1680-1685

Good luck!

Views: 1443

Comment by JOSEPH KAHIHIA THUO on January 11, 2013 at 6:34am

i'm long eur/usd from 1.3065

Comment by Kevin Henry Ostermey on January 11, 2013 at 6:51am

Once again thanks for providing Traders across the globe with such valuable and accurate information. Vladimar you are a real breathe of fresh air and  a real asset to FX STREET. Keep up the good work! Kind regards, Kevin

Comment by xtian21 on January 11, 2013 at 1:25pm


Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 11, 2013 at 1:25pm

LONG EUR target zone reached

Comment by Bero on January 11, 2013 at 2:45pm

2nd LONG EUR target zone has been reached perfect vladimir :)

do you think it will close at 1.34 tonight ?

Comment by Hammad on January 11, 2013 at 3:00pm

i traded breakout today...but your analysis are far better than today's breakout


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