EUR bulls gave up in yesterday's fight too and EUR made a full reversal of the day dropping to 1.2736  from 1.2855 in less than 2 hours. So my bullish scenario has failed but bearish became true. On Daily we are going deeper and deeper into the positive Ichimoku, no matter it is very wide, and its Senkou Span B passes through 1.2606-1.2626 zone where i think the bulls will be in control. Yesterday was just a test of  Senkou Span A @ 1.2878 which was unsuccessful. EUR now is in a downside channel, buying in a downside channel is strongly forbidden. I think more downside is possible, but today is the ECB rate decision, though the forecast is that ECB will keep it unchanged - the central bank always can bring a surprise and to do a rate cut. Be careful today and do not trade the news from ECB immediately, stand-by for at least 30 min bar to see what is the market's mood. My opinion is that in both cases EUR will drop further, just because all want to see 1.2600 soon. MA200 passes through 1.2820 so Daily close above it will be a good signal for the bulls, next resistance is the well known 1.2880-1.2905 zone, and above 1.2990. If that last is broken, then breaking of 1.3050 and going to 1.3170 is a matter of time. But we are too close to 1.26 to think for prices above 1.3000.

GOLD has stopped upside movement, but just for now, i think today it will progress more before the ECB rate decision. Still below 1740 we have chances for reverse to the downside. But i think GOLD is in a recovery mode, and this will continue in the following days. 

For today:

SHORT EUR below 1.2790 SL 1.2820 TP 1.2700 and below

i cannot give a correct LONG alternative because i have no idea where EUR will stop, you may try

LONG EUR @ 1.2645 SL 1.2635 TP above 1.2720

LONG EUR around 1.2600 SL 1.2580 TP above 1.2700


LONG GOLD above 1705 SL 1698 TP 1736-1740

if we have the upmove to 1740

SHORT GOLD below 1742 SL 1746 TP 1715  please take a look on a tight SL

Do not trade without SL, trading without SL is the easiest way to loose your money.

Good luck!

Views: 967

Comment by Ossbwy on November 8, 2012 at 6:25am

hi Vladimir Mihaylov, nice post. Yes it's look bearish, but my question is that if ECB don't cut rate then it should go above near 1.2820. You wrote that "My opinion is that in both cases EUR will drop further, just because all want to see 1.2600 soon." so define us in both cases how will EUR drop further. As we see 1.2740 is 38.2% retracement of the 1.2040/1.3070. so technically may be it will go above if ECB  leave rate unchanged. if ECB will bring surprise and do a rate cut then it will be possible to drop further near 1.2688 or 1.2600 50.0% retracement of the 1.2040/1.3070. but ECB already lowest historical level rate 0.75%. 

Comment by Marco Stefanelli on November 8, 2012 at 6:38am

Hi Vlad, thanks for your forecasts.. i follow you almost every day, you are one of the most reliable sources out there. keep it up!

Comment by Neo on November 8, 2012 at 9:12am

and please also add this with "Ossbwy" Greek austerity bill approved in parliament.. concept

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 8, 2012 at 9:52am

both cases are - ECB cut the rate and ECB leaves the same rate - but let's see how will the market react, better stay away today or trade with small amounts

Comment by Neo on November 8, 2012 at 1:56pm

Now 30 min accomplished, but still not clear,, interest rate remains unchanged, plz suggest.


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