Yestarday EUR moved in both directions quick and powerful as forecasted, unfortunately it was not able to reach the targets mentioned yesterday. Mr.Draghi again assured the markets that ECB will do everything needed to support the EUR, but.... there was one "BUT" - within the mandate - which means not now. At the same time mrs.Merkel has said some things which sounded like "... but noone has asked Germany about that plan" So until 12 sept i expect no actions from ECB. On a question of a reporter "What will make ECB sure that this plan will work, because the other 2 didn't?" mr.Draghi said that the plan has some new elements which will prove that the pnal will definitely work. Is that true - we shall see very very soon, in a month or two.
EUR tested 1.2550 and quickly reversed north, to stabilize around 1.2630. For today i'm expecting to continue the upside movement following the US data release, as expectations are the data will increase the pressure over FED to implement QE3. Drops to test 1.2600-10 and even 1.2570 are possible, but watch for quick recovery. If the prise falls below 1.2540-50 then alternative scenario is in place - look for 1.2480 then.
On the upside resistances are 1.2650-60, 1.2690, 1.2730-40 where i expect to take the profit. If upside scenario then a pullback may present which should take the price 100 pips back to 1.2630 or where we have started today. So take your profit around 1.2690-1.2730 and run. Remember today is the end of the week and noone will try to break the 1.2740. There will be a massive profit taking i think, but this is just my opinion :)
GOLD has reached 1713 yesterday, but reversed as traders want to risk more,nevertheless i expect the upside movement to be back soon.
My positions for today:
LONG EUR above 1.2600 SL 1.2550, TP 1.2690, 1.2710-30
LONG GOLD above 1685 SL 1680 TP above 1700-1705