EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 07.03.2013
EUR preformed badly the recovery yesterday, witha a lot of uncertainty and as the result we have a drop to the lowest level supported by the better than expected US data. We have a tiny time frame of 5-6 days to break lower, so i think the investors will try their chance starting from today. Here i wish to add the forecasts of Societe Generale who expect EUR to fall to 1.2500 in the second quarter of the year, and Deutsche Bank who go even further to 1.1000 till the end of this summer. First say the main reason will be the uncertainty after the Italian elections and continuous debt crisis in Europe which has no end, and Deutsche Bank say the main reasons are the need of the banks outside USA to lower their currency value against the dollar, the better US economy recovery, and the fact that China's economy is not in so good condition as presented.
Reading this i may say that the above is too optimistic and we first have to deal with 1.2880 which will be far more strong that 1.3000 is, and probably will be broken very hard and wth several attempts. Bigger time frames show bearish move is in place,only smaller than H1 show EUR is in a recovery mode which i expect to reach 1.3030-40 or somewhere around before the next drop. The best thing in rate decision days is to stay away from the market, but if you have to act i will give you several entry points, and you have to decide on your own where to enter, because moves in both directions are expected today. Resistance levels for today are - 1.3030-1.3045-1.3075-1.3110, the last support left is 1.2960. You may sell on any of these resistances,but the most important is mr.Draghi's speech, so pay attention there.
GOLD paused, and now trying to benefit of rate decision day, but with increasing the interest on EUR/USD , gold's hopes will fade very soon.
For today:
SHORT EUR below 1.3040 SL1.3060 TP 1.2960-1.2900-1.2880
SHORT EUR below 1.3120 SL1.3150 TP 1.2960-1.2900-1.2880
SHORT EUR below 1.3090 SL 1.3110 TP 1.2960-1.2900-1.2880
LONG EUR above 1.3200 SL 1.3150 TP 1.3330 and above
LONG GOLD above 1592 SL 1585 TP 1605-1615-1620
SHORT GOLD below 1570 SL 1575 TP 1550 and below
Good luck!
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Comment by Alexander B. on March 7, 2013 at 6:31am -
Vladi do you think S&P desicion about Portugal ranking will make bigger impression on the market? Thank you
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 7, 2013 at 6:47am -
Raiting agencies decisions always influenced the markets, but the fucus for today will be the mr.Draghi's speech. I expect staying around and below 1.3000 this morning and then a quick jump higher to open SELL positions at a better price. There won't be a rate cut, but even with the rate unchanged, the speech of mr.Draghi will be not so optimistic and this will bring the price down.This is how i see the things.
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Comment by Alexander B. on March 7, 2013 at 7:08am
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thanks for your opinion!
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Comment by Konwerska on March 7, 2013 at 7:26am
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Thank you for your analysis and valuable advice
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Comment by Jose on March 7, 2013 at 1:48pm
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ehh short from 3082
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its crazy day huhh...
I believe will bring the price down
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I hope so will bring the price down
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Comment by Anastasi Ukrainskaya on March 7, 2013 at 2:46pm -
Would you still suggest SHORT EUR below 1.3120 after the latest news?
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 7, 2013 at 3:58pm
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Today we have no rate cut which is not a surprise, Draghi also confirmed the ECB policy and that the rate decision is taken with a vast majority, also no further stilulus will be applied. He said again that the outlook is negative, the economy is shrinking more than planned, so nothing good for the eurozone. Today's move is a correction move about which i have told you some days before. I have told you that we have to go at least to 1.3250 and that the current drop is very early to happen. Today's recovery is mainly due to partly profit taking from short positions from 1.3700. Tomorrow s very likely the recovery to the upside to continue reaching 1.3170. My advice now is to wait for the market to understand the situation. Go SHORT at 1.3150-70 area which is the Senkou Span B of the negative Ichimoku on Weekly. We have failed to break the cloud and the prce returned back inside which may slide it down to 1.2880 by the end on next week. Remember what Societe Generale have said - they expect EUR to go to 1.25-1.27 within this month. And the big players always know something more that you and me don't :)
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Comment by Anastasi Ukrainskaya on March 7, 2013 at 4:05pm
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Thank you for your great posts and your feedback
"WAIT" is something I can cope with :-)
And thank you Grigore for your very prompt advice
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