EUR preformed badly the recovery yesterday, witha a lot of uncertainty and as the result we have a drop to the lowest level supported by the better than expected US data. We have a tiny time frame of 5-6 days to break lower, so i think the investors will try their chance starting from today. Here i wish to add the forecasts of Societe Generale who expect EUR to fall to 1.2500 in the second quarter of the year, and Deutsche Bank who go even further to 1.1000 till the end of this summer. First say the main reason will be the uncertainty after the Italian elections and continuous debt crisis in Europe which has no end, and Deutsche Bank say the main reasons are the need of the banks outside USA to lower their currency value against the dollar, the better US economy recovery, and the fact that China's economy is not in so good condition as presented.
Reading this i may say that the above is too optimistic and we first have to deal with 1.2880 which will be far more strong that 1.3000 is, and probably will be broken very hard and wth several attempts. Bigger time frames show bearish move is in place,only smaller than H1 show EUR is in a recovery mode which i expect to reach 1.3030-40 or somewhere around before the next drop. The best thing in rate decision days is to stay away from the market, but if you have to act i will give you several entry points, and you have to decide on your own where to enter, because moves in both directions are expected today. Resistance levels for today are - 1.3030-1.3045-1.3075-1.3110, the last support left is 1.2960. You may sell on any of these resistances,but the most important is mr.Draghi's speech, so pay attention there.
GOLD paused, and now trying to benefit of rate decision day, but with increasing the interest on EUR/USD , gold's hopes will fade very soon.
SHORT EUR below 1.3040 SL1.3060 TP 1.2960-1.2900-1.2880
SHORT EUR below 1.3120 SL1.3150 TP 1.2960-1.2900-1.2880
SHORT EUR below 1.3090 SL 1.3110 TP 1.2960-1.2900-1.2880
LONG EUR above 1.3200 SL 1.3150 TP 1.3330 and above
LONG GOLD above 1592 SL 1585 TP 1605-1615-1620
SHORT GOLD below 1570 SL 1575 TP 1550 and below