EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 04.01.2013
Yesterday EUR reached all the three targets in my forecast, and GOLD has reached also the short target in early Asia today. I hope you've made a good profit. So the big question is what next. Answers for the EUR and the GOLD are different i think. Let's first take a look on EUR. Today plenty of data for the EU will be released starting with Germany's. Later today over the Atlantic we shall wait for NFP and ISM. These will be the market movers today. On the charts interesting things are happening they are so clear and simple that can't be better. On Monthly we have been rejected by a huge negative Ichimoku border and we are searching for support but first is 1.3000 second is 1.2900 below 1.2900 is 1.2675 and if that is broken on Monthly - EUR is totally doomed. But do not make a dream this won't happen (soon).
On Weekly the diving to 1.2600 has just started. We have a very good support @ 1.2980, next comes @ 1.2930 and 1.2900. To open the way to 1.2600 we need a weekly close below 1.2850. You can print this forecast to have the levels for the future, because i'm not going to write these in every single daily forecast. I'm expecting a drop to 1.2600 in 40 days from now. Of course for this closing the month below 1.2900 is a must. But this is just the first week of January and the dollar is usually stronger than other currencies. On Weekly we are still bullish, but on all other time fremes we are bearish, so majority wins.
Today's support is 1.2980 if reached i think we shall have a pullback higher to 1.3030 and even to 1.3090-1.3125 on bad US data and good EU data. We have reached the support 1.3030 on H4 and now it's time to correct to 1.3090 at least. Only if we Close below 1.3020 we shall test 1.2980. On H1 close above 1.3045 will signal rising to 1.3080-90. Please take a look in the future on Daily and you will notice that a good H&S model is forming with a neckline at 1.2880-1.2890.
GOLD has cancelled the recovery mode and now is again going south, move is very strong and seems to continue, throw all your golden jewels for recycling :) Now breaking below 1630 will risk a drop to 1600 and even below - to 1550 for example - too bad isn't it :((((( R.I.P.
For today:
on a dip to 1.2980 try LONG @ 1.2980 SL 1.2965 TP 1.3080-90-1.3120
SHORT below 1.3045 SL 1.3060 TP 1.3030-1.2980
SHORT GOLD below 1660 SL 1668 TP 1645-1632 and below
do not enter LONG GOLD it's too dangerous
Good luck!
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Comment by Eric PETERSEN on January 4, 2013 at 6:29am -
Thanks a lot Vladimir!
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Comment by G Singh on January 4, 2013 at 7:32am
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Hey vladimir, I've been following your analysis for a while and you've been so consistent. Great work! I want to know if you consider fundamental news also when making your daily targets?
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 4, 2013 at 7:46am -
Yes, together with fundamental is always better, but i'm watching the charts because any good news for me, may be bad for the big players
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Comment by Elric on January 4, 2013 at 8:43am -
Many Thanks Vladimir
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Comment by Danusia Polaszewski on January 4, 2013 at 10:18am
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Thanks..Vladimir, is there a quick way of finding your posts? Yesterday I couldn't find it...don't know why...
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 4, 2013 at 11:00am
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Bookmark this link:
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Comment by Fendy MxO on January 4, 2013 at 11:34am -
Thanks For Share Vladimir...
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Comment by Danusia Polaszewski on January 4, 2013 at 11:47am
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Thanks Vladimir....can't afford to miss your posts:)))) regards...
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Comment by Eric PETERSEN on January 4, 2013 at 2:57pm
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Dear Vladimir,
Since the Non-farm Payroll data from the US an hour and a half ago, would you be kind enough to tell us if you confirm your initial forecast from this morning or if this data has modified the situation in any way.
Thanks a million!
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 4, 2013 at 5:40pm
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We have some good data from US, but the market is still cautious. My forecast for today is correct, first EUR dropped but coudn't reach 1.2980 then went up but couldn't reach 1.3080 . We have been moving in a narrow range the whole day. So it is expected to close the week around 1.3030-40. We have good support @ 1.2980 and next week we may go up again. Let's wait and see Moday's Asia first. Have a nice weekend!
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