Last time EUR was unable to break the 1.2940-60 resistance and reversed to the downside and the SELL forecast worked. This Monday starts with more downside and one unsuccessful try to break lower 1.2800 at the moment of writing. We have 38.2 retrqacement @ 1.2740, so for today i'm expecting a range trade between 1.2740 and 1.2850. Fresh fuel for the EUR may come from any raiting agency which will lower Spain's raiting - this will renew the speculations about requesting financial help for Spain and in this relation start of the new bond buying program of the ECB. GOLD is still in wide consolidation within 1754-1774. Still drops to 1740 are possible so if there is any, use that to enter LONG, with target above 1790, allow no more than 8 USD stop loss. For today Germany's PMI and USA ISM will be the market movers, so until these it's pretty difficult to make a correct forecast, but i'll try.

EUR for now is in a downmove which may extend to 1.2768 at least, downside move will stop @ 1.2740 where as i've said is placed 38.2 fibo retracement. On the downside there are to many and too close situated support zones so i do not expect any huge drop.

On the upside we shall first deal with 1.2890-1.2010 resistance zone then with 1.2980-1.3000 which doesn't seem to give up so easy.

My forecast:

LONG around 1.2740 SL 1.2700 TP 1.2880 - 1.2910 - 1.2960

or 

SHORT EUR @ 1.2835 SL 1.2870 TP 1.2740

Later this week ECB will take rate decision, last time many expected ECB will lower rate again, so this keeps pressure over the EUR right now, so i favor the downside will continue slowly. GOLD will continue to consolidate so use drops to buy.

LONG GOLD above 1740, SL 1734 TP above 1790

Good luck!

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Tags: EUR, GOLD, USD

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