EUR/USD forecst 15.08.2011
We have closed the week negative again, but there shoud be another test of 1.4520 before going down again. Maybe this or next week. This morning EUR went to 1.4316 and then back below 1.43. However it's trying to break up higher ahead of the meeting of Merkel and Sarkozy tomorrow. If they reach an agreement, EUR will reach 1.4410 again, and from there 1.4520 looks very closer.
It's very difficult to make a forecast as we are now in a flat consolidation move, but for today we have the power to go to 1.4360-80 and then we shall look to stay above 1.4320. So you may enter LONG @ 1.4260 with TP 100 pips above or enter SHORT near 1.4400 with TP somewhere around 1.4330.
On GOLD we have also consolidation around 1740-1750. Breaking of 1720 will lead us below 1700, otherwise break above 1780 will renew the upside movement. But for now i think we shall go to 1670 before next leg UP.
My position is : LONG EUR @ 1.4293 TP 1.4350 - opened
Any comments and questions are welcomed
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 15, 2011 at 11:33am -
EUR rebounded from 1.4330 and is still below 1.43, there is a good support @ 1.4240-50 and many STOPS below 1.4230. GOLD is forming H&S with target 1660, daily close below 1720 will confirm H&S.
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Comment by Vijay Raghavan on August 15, 2011 at 11:39am -
Thanks Vladimir,
Good well balanced analysis as usual. What is your SL on Euro long ?
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 15, 2011 at 11:52am
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My stop for today is below 1.4250 as my position is not opened at good price, maybe the NY session will open positive which will help the EUR go higher
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Comment by Vijay Raghavan on August 15, 2011 at 11:55am
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I had it at 4250. Will move it down below. Thank you..
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 15, 2011 at 12:05pm
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Everything is possible, so it can of course - as we are in a flat consolidation - this means how far UP the same will go DOWN. If we are again below 1.4260 you'd better stop.
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 15, 2011 at 1:09pm
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Positions update :
LONG EUR @1.4285 TP 1.4360 +75 pips closed
LONG EUR@ 1.4285 TP 1.4382 +97 pips closed
Look to open SHORT around 1.44 TP somewhere around 1.4330-40
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Comment by Vijay Raghavan on August 15, 2011 at 4:11pm
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Thanks Vladimir... That was nice trade on the EURO
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 15, 2011 at 6:01pm
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EUR is up with the bad US data again not because eurozone has no problems yet. Hopes for tomorrow's french - german meeting have increased risk appetite and this is the main reason for the EUR rally. Read more in tomorrow's forecast, see you, we are done for today.
Positions update: SHORT not open @ 1.44 - cancelled
Wait until mid Asia or late Asia to enter, a drop to 1.44 expected, and then up again.
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Comment by Vijay Raghavan on August 15, 2011 at 6:13pm
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Thank YOu !
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