EUR/USD forecast 29.07.2011
Another leg down yesterday for the EUR. All this shows that EUR is feeling OK into the big Daily triangle and feeling bad out of it. But the problem is that we are very close to the end of that triangle and the EUR should choose a direction soon (till the end of the nex week). Today's trade will be like yesterday's - in a narrow rangle hovering between 1.4380 and 1.4280-70. Maybe we shall close this week somewhere above 1.43. As I've forecasted yesterday's evening there was a test of 1.4330 and it failed to hold so now EUR is trading @ 1.4350-60. I'm expecting it to go to 1.4380 even to 1.4407 but the last will definitely hold and will push the price back to 1.4340-50.
We have a flat consolidation on GOLD, it's possible to test again 1625 but not necessary. GOLD buyers are running out of gas. If an agreement in USA is a fact we may see a sharp EUR and GOLD fall, for GOLD it will go below 1580 but not at the first try. On the second try you may enter SHORT below 1580. It's possible to enter SHORT above 1625, but place STOPS .
For today the consumer spending will be released for the USA - that was the thing who pulled out USA from the last big depression. But now the unemployment is very high and the spending is low, and also they do not want to reach an agreement. Plenty of data for the Europe too so it's time for the daily positions, here they are:
For today you may enter SHORT near 1.44 with 40 pips STOP , once above 1.4440 better STOP, add to SHORT below 1.4260. First target is 1.4170, then 1.4120 and the last 1.4040. Remember that once above 1.4430-40 it will take us very fast to 1.4520 where we have failed last time. Today is the end of the week and the end of the month, so a high volatility is expected. For now the price still confirms the H&S formation on H4. That suggests going down again, but the indicators show mixed signals, so be very carefull there will be a tennis day today, with ups and downs. Have a successfull trading, any questions and comments are welcomed, thanks in advance!
P.S. there are rumors that voting in the USA will be postponed - (source Reuters)
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 29, 2011 at 7:01am -
Moody's is going to do a revision of the Spain's raiting, if lowered the EUR will suffer another sharp drop. We are still hovering into the triangle, we have tested the top border this morning,now we are testing the bottom border as forecasted before
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 29, 2011 at 8:05am
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EUR is going to test 1.4250 for the second time today if breached we are going to test 1.4170, stay tuned for more updates. I'm expecting EUR go down today.
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Comment by Jai on July 29, 2011 at 10:33am -
Hi Vladimir Mihaylov:
As it is inferred from the daily chart, EURUSD is following two triangle patterns.... symmetrical and as well as descending format.
Time period: From 4th May to till date.
But, the symmetrical triangle which was broken on 11th July then rebounded again to 1.4283 levels, then again broken on 14th July and rebounded to 1.4536 levels and now dipping to 1.42 levels.
Whereas the descending triangle pattern, witnessed lower tops at 1.4935, 1.4696, 1.4568,1.4536 levels and two bottoms at 1.3970, 1.3838 respectively. The second dip broke the support which lies at 1.3970 levels, but not successfully.... Wat I'm seeing is a downtrend in the pair.!!!! As u said, a convincing break of the support at 1.4250 levels would give the pair, a further move towards 1.4220 levels. The next support lies at 1.4205......
If I'm not wrong.......
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 29, 2011 at 12:01pm
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Yes,you're right. But I'm calling one thing triangle, and the second i'm calling 'wedge' . In this wedge we may drift until October, and that's what i'm thinking to be, but still i need some confirmation. Last break below 1.40 was a false move, so please discard it. Your graphic is absolutely correct, mine is the same.
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Comment by No money on July 29, 2011 at 6:48pm -
Hi Vladimir, do you think its more going done or more up after news situation?
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 30, 2011 at 6:41am
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We shall go up again on Monday, possible another attempt to test 1.4520, if we have no agreement on tuesday in the USA we may go above 1.4520 next week.
Comment
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