Worldwide recovery of stock exchange and bad US data hit the Dollar yesterday as it fell across the board against many currencies with over 1%, we are currently @ 1.4410-20 support level and we have formed something like a flag formation - but not clear yet. Today is the Merkel-Sarkozy meeting to discuss the debt problems, if they reach agreement for future actions EUR will rise to 1.4520 today. If not - then a fall to 1.43 again. Market is calm at the moment i'm waiting and do not open positions in any direction. GOLD rejected testing of 1720 and is ready to destroy the H&S figure on H4. Watch for close above 1780 - then attack of all time high follows. EUR bull are a little bit exhausted, we have to wait a little bit more before doing anything.

This morning there was an information that BoJ has made an intervention, but still unconfirmed. Stay tuned fro more updates during the day. My recommendation is to stay away and wait for the EUR to determine direction.

Any comments and questions are welcomed

Views: 1008

Tags: EUR/USD

Comment by MarlonF on August 16, 2011 at 6:10am
where do you see gold today? aiming 1780 or higher?
Comment by Albert Ferreira on August 16, 2011 at 6:54am
Hi Vladimir, can you please send your email to afera@msn.com, I need to contact you, thanks
Comment by mgbeken christopher nnadi on August 16, 2011 at 7:11am
good,morning ,please where is the derection of eur/usd,what position i i enter now. thank you..sir.
Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 16, 2011 at 8:01am

It's difficult to say where EUR is going, all depends on meeting in Paris today, it is expected an agreement to be reached,so this will help EUR in the afternoon. But recent drop may extend to 1.4330, so be carefull. Uncertainty grows as well as the price of GOLD, all look for a place to hide - bad US data and debt problems in EU - what left then - nothing than GOLD. But don't take LONGS on GOLD now, drops to 1750 still are possible,wait for daily close above 1780 to enter LONG otherwise drops still possible.

Positions update: small LONG @ 1.4390 TP some 100 pips above - opened

My position is not well opened again (damn) it's good to have long @ 1.4340 or 1.4370 at least.

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 16, 2011 at 10:24am

Analysts from Dow Jones think that the pair may decline later today because they don't think any important decision to be taken today. I may add the bad data from Europe which shows Europe is facing another economy decline.

Positions update: LONG Eur @ 1.4390 - closed @ 1.4382 - 8 pips closed

I don't want to risk today.

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 16, 2011 at 11:35am

Testing of the 4-month resistance line @ 1.4440 was unsuccessfull and now EUR targets 1.4330 and then 1.4260. If it breaks up targets will be 1.4520 and then 1.4700, but this is less possible - Commerzbank

EUR has a potential to go up to 1.47 till the end of September - Bank of Australia

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 16, 2011 at 12:30pm
Positions update: small LONG EUR @1.4369 TP 1.4440 SL 1.4319
Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 16, 2011 at 3:06pm

Fitch have confirmed AAA raiting of USA but for the rest of the year they possibly will decrease the status as negative, which means that a raiting decrease in the following 2 years is quite possible.

We have also better than expected data from USA. If we do not make it above 1.4520, this will mean another lower top, and somewhere around 1.4450 will be a good place to sell.

EUR is attacking 1.4410 again by this moment, my LONG still active.

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 16, 2011 at 3:51pm
Positions update: LONG @ 1.4369 TP 1.4412  closed +43 pips
Comment by Bruno on August 16, 2011 at 5:23pm
sarko gave a great entry to fundy traders

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