EUR falls from the beginning of the today's trade. We are very close to the tip of the legendary Daily triangle, once again managed yesterday to break out of it, but there is still uncomfortable. So now we are again in the small piece left of it, just tested its downside border @ 1.4280. EUR has no clear direction and if the price returns above 1.4320 there will be formed something like a flag formation on H4 which will suppose further gains. Today is the ECB rate decision and mr.Trichet speech @ 12:30 GMT. Lets take a quick look at the situation in Europe - Italy has some serious debt problems, spendings are 120% of the GDP and Brelusconi's government may not succeed to make the necessary cuts. Italian economy is the third largest in the EU and is twice bigger than Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined. Any problem with the Italian economy can destroy the whole eurozone and EUR will be dead currency. Spain has the biggest unemployment in the EU - it's almost 21%, that means every 5th person is unemployed, and there are also economy problems. But ECB says everything is OK, EUR can trust - it's only dust in the eyes - eurozone is going to be doomed - it's only a matter of time.
Overseas USA avoided default, still bad data, still high unemployment, but we see these from long time, and nothing new. Now they are speculating with the possibility of QE3 which makes the dollar fall across the board, but we shall see what will happen maybe just next week.
Today we can se an SNB intervention, so i prefer not to trade in such conditions. If you can do not trade today. For these who want to trade, enter LONG on EUR above 1.4270, first target 1.4360, second 1.44, and finally 1.4440. On the downside - enter Short below 1.42 - first target 1.4160, second 1.4130, below thing will go interesting, but let's see what will happen today.
GOLD is back to the upside after the yesterday's afternoon stand by, I expect it to make a new high today.