EUR/USD forecast 04.07.2012-14.07.2012

On a Daily chart we can see that EUR is forming an inverted H&S model. Still bouncing back from the large negative Ichimoku downside, but acoording to my view this will be short term weakness, due mainly to some profit taking. In the next 10-14 days upside movement will resume, until that floating between 1.2550 and 1.2750 will present. Upside will be halted @ 1.3000, so if you are LONG take your profit there. If we take a look on Weekly through September and further, USD will be put on pressure and EUR will try to break the negative Ichimoku higher, which may take us to 1.37 at least - but this is very long term forecast, and it is just my theory which i'm sharing with you.
Back on H4 EUR we can see clearly a FLAG formation which suggests more upside soon maybe 1.2740 or a little bit higher. First resistance is arround 1.28, if we have a daily close above - then 1.30 follows.
Of course there is a downside scenario, but i think 1.2500 will hold, and then a powerful reverse.
For any of you who are interesting in my positions - i'm LONG @ 1.2430 first target 1.28, second target 1.30. At this time i do not trade GOLD as it has no direction right now - i'm waiting for a weekly close around 1700 to determine the direction. There were several tries to break 1530 without success, this means that is it very possible that 1530-40 will be the solid base for the next 12 months. If you have any money available may go LONG below 1600. Upside follows but i'm not sure exactly when.

Tags: EUR, GOLD, USD

3 members like this

Comment by Jacobson MAthew on July 4, 2012 at 5:53am: hi vladimir, good to see you after a long time.

Whats your view on aussie dollar ?. Also gold, I see you are not following. do you see gold range bound or bullish in the short term ?

Comment by UmairButt on July 4, 2012 at 7:31am: welcome back

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 4, 2012 at 8:18am: I've never traded aussie dollar, sorry but can't help here. Situation on GOLD shows some signs of rising, but we have to trade above 1700 to resume the bullish again. USD is expected to be put in a high fundamental pressure near the year's end, so i'm expecting the GOLD to resume bullish after the summer vacation.

P.S.Nice to see that people remember me after several months of no posting here. Thank you very much - remember my forecasts are only for recommendation, decide all about your money on your own