EUR/USD forecast 03.08.2011
USA debt crisis is over but still no reaction from the pair. We shall trade it in a range today as all are waiting for the mr.Trichet speech on Thursday. It is expected for the ECB to leave the rate unchanged, and i'm expecting the same, and also the rate not to change till October but that's another talk. Ahead of ECB interest rate decision, non-farm payrolls change and FOMC meeting on 9 aug we witness a GOLD rush. A South Korean bank has bought some 25 tons of GOLD yesterday, nice huh :) So the GOLD price is expexted to rise more, i don't expect Korea to loose money. There is a panic on the financial markets and GOLD jumped nearly 200 USD for the last 40 days and we may see it very soon touching 1700 - a completely crasy situation. And now back on the EUR/USD - as i've said we shall trade it in a narrow range between 1.4130 and 1.4280. Finally 1.4330 should hold but i do not expect to reach it today. A clear break of 1.4130 is also less possible. We have the potential to test the 1.40 again but not today. Keep your stops above 1.4330 and stay tuned for more updates later today.
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Comment by MarlonF on August 3, 2011 at 6:24am -
did u exit your position on gold? read in a report that its heading towards 1730 area?????
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 3, 2011 at 6:26am -
yes, my SL was hit, there is a panic on the market now, there is nowhere to hide, maybe GOLD is the last shelter
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Comment by MarlonF on August 3, 2011 at 6:44am
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and for how long do u think this panic would last?
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Comment by MarlonF on August 3, 2011 at 6:54am
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i think its more of like trading use to gambling and they'll book profits when they have earned enough...
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 3, 2011 at 7:00am
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noone knows how long, maybe until Friday, besides GOLD is gone mad, it has already made 20 USD up since today's open and is only the beginning of the day, what a panic
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 3, 2011 at 7:05am
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Moody's and Fitch have confirmed AAA raiting, but mid-term outlook is still negative
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Comment by MarlonF on August 3, 2011 at 7:16am
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thats the same reason for my assumption that people will book profits one of these days, only problem is that they see possibilities to make more profit and greed seems to drive gold than the panic.. as for the panic this is nothing new, we have seen worse in the past and shouldnt be a reason to drive gold mad like this
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 3, 2011 at 8:41am
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EUR is trading as forecasted between 1.4130 and 1.4280. Possible test of 1.4330, watch there for break if that happens enter SHORT @ 1.4370 with 30 pips stop, add to SHORT below 1.4190. There are speculations about QE3 and tomorrow's Trichet speech support EUR rise. I think it's only a corrective move.
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Comment by sabbir on August 3, 2011 at 8:44am -
so you are recommending euro short for tonight if it rises and euro will rise again tomorrow after the speech?
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Comment by Bruno on August 3, 2011 at 9:19am
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Looks like QE3 is already on the cards, it's not as if they'll have a choice really... I have weekly pivot at 1.4354, and it corresponds to the UTL on daily. a great place for closing my longs. It may overshoot to 1.437 as you mentionned. I will reassess when we get there.
Thanks for your posts Vladimir, they are great help and made me more confident in my trades
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