EUR/USD forecast 01.08.2011
There is finally an agreement but despite that it is expected the raiting of the USA to be lowered. This should reflect on the EUR/USD and make the pair go UP again but not that much. Remember that EUR jumped up not because of the good news from the Eurozone,but from the bad ones overseas. So any rise could turn a sharp fall at any moment, and you definitely have to put stops to limit the loss.
Now we are in an UP move, waiting for the President Obama statement and for the raiting news. Please make a notice that on H4 we have a support by a large positive Ichimocu cloud and we are above the Daily triangle line. But on Daily chart we are still inside a negative Ichimocu and have a stron resistance @ 1.4450-60.
For today it's possible to go up to 1.4450 before voting in the USA, and after that we shall bounce back and shall wait for the raiting agencies reply, then another leg UP possible. For today no more UP than 1.4520 (if 1.4450 successfully breached) then back again 70-80 pips.
Remember France and Italy may also suffer a raiting decrease, and inflation in the Eurozone also decreased, the pressure for any rate hikes decreased too - this all mean EUR will start falling in the near future.
Any comments and questions are welcomed
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Comment by sabbir on August 1, 2011 at 5:55am -
i think it is good analysis of the overall euro condition
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Comment by sabbir on August 1, 2011 at 5:55am
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but i like to sell euro in any upmove, rather than long. long sounds risky to me.
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Comment by MarlonF on August 1, 2011 at 6:17am -
thanks mate, always appreciate your forecasts... should we go short or long on silver now since the debt deal looks a done deal now?
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 1, 2011 at 7:32am -
@sabbir - enter short is good, but EUR is in an UP move right now, and we are still waiting for the possible USA downgrade , do you have enough power to hedge your SHORTs?
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 1, 2011 at 7:44am
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@MarlonF - I don't know about Silver, i do not trade it, but we have to wait for the voting in the USA and for the raiting agencies statement, be carefull and place stops
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Comment by MarlonF on August 1, 2011 at 8:11am
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thanks mate..
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 1, 2011 at 8:24am
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EUR can reverse this afternoon, be very carefull !!!! Add to SHORT below 1.4320 for 1.4260. 1.4230 should hold for today. We have strong resistance @ 1.4450 and 1.4480, with the PMI data around expectations will be difficult to pass the resistances,only if we have some raiting downgrade.
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Comment by sabbir on August 1, 2011 at 8:51am
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valdimir, it'd help if you use gmt timing. this way we are confused what afternoon means.
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 1, 2011 at 10:09am
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@sabbir - my time is GMT+3,maybe EUR will rise till 14GMT and after that it is possible to turn south again. But there is a reversed H&S on H4 with target 1.4520. I've just made long +100 pips (from 1.4350 to 1.4450) today and now exit.
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Comment by sabbir on August 1, 2011 at 11:18am
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thanks valdimir, glad to see u made some good pips.
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