This is one of the best times to be short on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and GOLD.
They are highly correlated now with GOLD forming a Triple Top and GBP/USD , EUR/JPY, EUR/USD a Double Top on Daily charts, there are good risk/reward ratio trade setups and all have started their advance lower since the start of the week - supported both by fundamentals,news and technical conditions.
" European stocks and the euro fell for a third day, while oil declined as slowing Chinese growth and Europe’s debt crisis hurt corporate profits. The won retreated from an 11-month high and credit risk in Asia rose.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.2 percent at 8:01 a.m. in London, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures declined 0.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent. The euro weakened 0.1 percent against the dollar and 0.2 percent versus the yen, while South Korea’s won retreated 0.4 percent. Commodities as measured by the S&P GSCI Index dropped 0.2 percent as oil slid 0.4 percent. Bond risk in the Asia-Pacific region rose to a one-week high."
We will take a look on EUR/USD Monthly, Weekly, Daily and H4 charts and also GOLD's chart to see their correlation.
On the Monthly chart, we had 2 positive months after July wich tested the uptrend channel support, the 1.2191 support level and the 200 period SMA, where the price has been clearly rejected.Price currently holds below its faster (blue) SMA.
Since on the longer term the situation is rather bullish, we expect significantly higher prices after the E/U will drop to its channel support once again to form a reversed H&S or Double Bottom, wich we will see on the Weekly/Daily charts.
To this extent, we drop our view to the lower timeframe charts to better see this in detail.
On the Weekly chart we are inside a downtrend channel, where price has been rejected at its channel resistance for the third time, after two successful rejections, supporting our view for a reversed H&S or Double Bottom before continuing higher.
We also keep in mind two other factors strengthening our bearish mid-term outlook:
The 1.2087-1.3138 wave still is in a corrective stage to the downside and the range's 1.2608 support overlaps with Fibo 50.0 of 1.2087-1.3138 making this one of the most probable
turning points for the EUR/USD in the near future, even though the price can certainly move lower.
We turn our view to the Daily chart now, to see our position in accordance to the Weekly chart.
We can see the downtrend channel in more detail here and locate our short setup, with a good risk/reward ratio.
Price has currently been rejected at the downtrend channel's resistance and 1.3018 resistance area
(also check H4 to see rejection candles).This will probably confirm the channel's resistance as a strong,significant trendline.
The correction of the 1.2087-1.3138 wave is safe to continue now, giving us a good chance for the short setup we've prepared.
The best entry on the Daily timeframe was achieved after the first red candle below the channel with stop loss slightly above the channel and a target near the next significant support level (1.2669).
One other reason to short the EUR/USD is that it is well corelated to GOLD now, wich has formed a Triple Top on the Daily chart and has already dropped significantly.
Next we look at EUR/USD H4 to see a good entry for a short position.
We have a good entry into the trend with the Double Top on H4, the clear break of the uptrend channel and the break and consolidation below the 1.2887 resistance level wich has also been retested and price has been rejected and the price holds below its faster SMA,confirming a bearish outlook in the near term.
There is one more obstacle in the way to make this a ideal short setup : the 200 period SMA.wich the price is currently testing.
Sell at current price with a stop loss above 1.2887 and a target near the next supply zone - or support level at 1.2500.
This setup will give a good opportunity to position in accordance to the bearish trend on the Weekly and Daily charts.
Next, we will take a look at GOLD to see how it correlates to our bearish view on EUR/USD.
This will give another strong argument to be short on EUR/USD.
There we have our Triple Top confirmed, with rejection of the 3rd top at the resistance of the range.
Sell at the current price with a stop loss above the range's resistance and a target near the middle of the range.We are also in a corrective stage for the 1589-1794 wave.
Today, we got good results for French and Italian Industrial Production data, and this has given EUR/USD a short impulse to advance a bit higher.
This, however should be a temporary effect and will fade soon, resuming the bearish trend.
The 1.2887 level is still broken and the price might make a correction for the 1.2987-1.2830 wave as pointed on the EUR/USD H4 chart and after it is complete, resume the move down.