We will take a look at the changes this week have brought to the EUR/USD pair.
Since yesterday and into the Asian session , EUR/USD has receieved a impulse to go higher because of Moody's Investor Service retaining its Investment Grade rating for Spain.
What does this mean technically ?
Price is currently challenging its downtrend channel resistance on the Weekly timeframe, with a possible break in view.
The future outcome of a possible Reversed Head and Shoulders formation with the last shoulder bottom in the range's support or lower - or a Double Bottom before continuing higher is still valid even if the channel breaks.
In the event of a valid break and advance higher, the Fibo level that will overlap with the 1.2605 range support level will become 38.2 wich will further strengthen that support area as a most probable turning point when price reaches it.
However, the week is not yet over, and ideally we would see the channel still valid if price will retrace towards the end of the week and close inside it.
The price has broken the downtrend channel,consolidating above the 1.3017 resistance and entering the 1.3017-1.3389 range.A upside breakout from the Descending Triangle is
now valid on Daily and H4 and price holds above both its SMAs.
This provides us with a long setup opportunity.
My sugestion, however si to be cautious and patient about when you enter your long positions.
Buy at the current price or after a retrace lower to the 1.3017 support and a rejection there (this is the recommended approach unless we got another green day close above the broken channel) with a stop loss slightly below the broken level and a target at 1.3337, a target wich fully respects the Weekly resistance of 1.3337.
The Descendent Triangle and the 1.2830-1.3026 range have been broken to the upside, with price currently consolidating above its 1.3026 support and holding above both its SMAs.
A correction to the downside of the 1.2894-1.3127 wave is still possible at least to its 61.8 Fibo level, bringing with it a re-test of the broken range and triangle wich is ideal to give us a higher probability trade, if price will be rejected there once again.
This setup takes a protective,conservative approach and will only validate the long position if there is a valid correction (and rejection lower) for the 1.2894-1.3127 wave.
Buy at 1.3053 with a stop loss slightly inside the range and a target at 1.3135.
We get another good entry for a long setup on the H1 chart, in the event of a drop or correction in price at least to the 1.3062 support wich is in proximity to Fibo 61.8 of the 1,2928-1.3123 wave.
A rejection above that support will provide us with a good risk/reward trade and a confirmation of a new possible uptrend channel.
Buy at 1.3070 with a stop loss at 1.3034, slightly inside the range, and a target at 1.3137.
Today we got the following events to keep an eye on :
Building Permits at 3:30 PM / Housing Starts at 3:30 PM / Crude Oil Inventories at 5:30 PM