Comment by Indy on July 15, 2012 at 11:39am

Can't believe i forgot this candidate for year low. 1.2162

Comment by Peter jcp on July 15, 2012 at 11:55am

Hi Indy - some nice predictions there and I am glad that you don't try and predict the future to the degree of many others. To me it back to the weather forecast analogy. Even the best experts in the world cannot seem to get a few weeks or month fairly accurate - but even me ( no weather forecaster ) can predict very accurately the next 5 minutes - and sometime even an whole hour or two ;-)

Its all down to variables - the more you have - the harder it becomes. For all we know they might discover the largest oil reserves in the world in Greece or Spain etc within the next month the Euro goes into orbit. Similar the US or the Far East might have an earthquake or tsunami next month etc etc - ie time plays a key part in predictions and the longer you try and forecast ahead - the harder it becomes it achieve higher accuracy.

I base most of my own long term forecast ( guesses) on the day the week , the month and relevant S & R  at that point of time - plus the actual movement over the past 4- 48 hrs. That results in constant changes every hr day week etc

Also - i think if you honestly believe a lot lower - you could put say a 600 pip stop in today and aim for  a 600 -1200 pip target in the next 2 -5 months - but whats the good of that unless you load and unload it as it falls? - ie RR of 2 - I make them in 15 minutes ;-)

Regards

Peter

Comment by Indy on July 15, 2012 at 1:33pm

Hi Peter,

You could always take the reversal if you prefergo in with a 500pip stop for a 2250pip target thats a much better R:R. should only take a year and a quarter.

Give or take a day or two.

cheers

Indy

Comment by Indy on July 15, 2012 at 8:19pm

Hi again,

so I've been thinking about what my point was when I did these charts, (if I even had one), it definately wasn't to actually pick a bottom. This doesn't mean that these levels are irrelevant, in fact all of them are relevant, any one of the could be the bottom for this year. so could any number of other predictions. the truth is I don't know. Thats the point

All that these numbers prove is that if you give me a laptop and 15 minutes I can give you 10 potential reversal points all of which are valid in some way

Peter JCP picked up on the important factor here. This post was never about numbers its about predictions. When I previously spoke about my linetrading I said that the lines do not give me entries they just give me an area to look for entries. When I see prices get to one of my areas I never know if I am going to trade the reversal or the break.All I do is watch, I assess and I react. So I guess the question is wether you want be a predictive or reactive trader maybe predictions work for you, I find reactions work better for me.

I will leave these lines on my chart,(most of them anyway), as ones to watch. You need some preparion to allow the reaction. but given that everyone is looking for follow through it wouldn't entirely surprise me if my last prediction was the right one.

Cheers

Indy

One last chart

The fibonacci looks quite nice with that retracement off the previous low and then the continuation so maybe we should look at 1.1200

Comment by Indy on July 22, 2012 at 9:23pm

another fibonacci, an interesting place to gap to

Comment by Indy on July 22, 2012 at 10:04pm

so what happens when you put those 2 fibo's together?

Comment by Keith Shaw on July 22, 2012 at 10:07pm

Fibo Messy ?

Comment by Indy on July 22, 2012 at 10:10pm

add a trendline back in?

Comment by Indy on July 22, 2012 at 10:17pm

more than messy keith, just wait until i put these fibos on top of all the other trendlines, channels, s/r and boxes.

if you draw enough lines you can always find a confluence.

 

cheers ,

Indy

 

Comment by Indy on July 22, 2012 at 10:21pm

next step?

delete them all and go back to my 1hr charts, limit myself to a couple of lines that i can actually trade from and stop messing around on this chart.

 no point worrying about targets that are 3 months away

cheers

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