We will take a up to date look at the charts, including Weekly,Daily and H4 and we will see where is the best place to short and what price action shows us,
Those charts will probably be valid for the rest of the week at least.
The week has started with higher prices in the European session mainly due to the higher than expected Chinese exports data, but upside is limited by both the downtrend line on Daily and a Descendent Triangle, wich are important turning points for the EUR/USD.
On the Weekly chart we are inside a downtrend channel, where price has been rejected at its channel resistance for the third time, after two successful rejections, supporting our view for a reversed H&S or Double Bottom before continuing higher.
We also keep in mind two other factors strengthening our bearish mid-term outlook:
The 1.2087-1.3138 wave still is in a corrective stage to the downside (correction is not finished) and the range's 1.2608 support overlaps with Fibo 50.0 of 1.2087-1.3138 making this one of the most probable turning points for the EUR/USD in the near future, even though the price can certainly move lower and perhaps form a Double Bottom near Fibo 38.2-23.6 of the measured wave.
We can see the downtrend channel in more detail here and locate our short setup, with a good risk/reward ratio.
Price has currently been rejected at the downtrend channel's resistance and 1.3018 resistance area (also check H4 to see rejection candles).This confirms the channel's resistance as a strong,significant trendline.
The correction of the 1.2087-1.3138 wave is still in progress,, giving us a good entry for the short setup we've prepared and providing a extension target near its 38.2 Fibo level.
The best entry on the Daily timeframe was achieved after the first red candle below the channel with stop loss slightly above the channel and a target near the next significant support level (1.2669).
Another short setup is forming now on the Daily chart as price has retraced higher and is nearing the downtrend channel resistance once again,
We have a Descendant Triangle with high probability for a downside breakout.
This reinforces our bearish view of the pair and provides us with a optional short entry point below the tirangle, in the case of a breakout - besides our new entry point near the downtrend channel resistance.
We take a look on the H4 chart next, to identify a new entry point.
We see the Descendent Triangle in detail on the H4 chart.
Our short entry is below the triangle, in the case of a breakout with a stop loss above the 1.2830 level and a main target near the 1.2494 support.
The target is the same as the extension target (second one) on the Daily chart, located near Fibo 38.2 of the 1.2087-1.3138 wave, wich is undergoing a downside correction on Daily.
Today we have the following news to keep a eye on:
Expected data is somewhat mixed, so pay attention to how this affects the price action in the US session.