EUR firmed its positions against the dollar yesterday, because of the fresh money transfer to Greece, and hopes for the better things to happen on Wednesday. My forecast was complete as the pair touched 1.3955 and it was a good price to enter SHORT. At 1.3965 we have the 100% fibo retracement from 1.47 and also the diagonal downside trend line from 1.6000, it's a major trend resistance line. Weekly MA14 passes through 1.3955 (where we have stopped) and positive weekly Ichimoku border is @ 1.4040. On Daily we are inside a thin negative Ichimoku , but it's too early to break it, and i'm not sure if we have the enough power to do it. These all are supporting my theory that a downside movement is going to begin very soon.

Now for support lines - we have first support @ 1.3810, followed by 1.3770 and then 1.3650, below 1.3540, @ 1.3400 watch for reaction from ECB - there will  be any for sure, Merkel has dropped a hint for that. And the reason is that if we loose 1.3400 , EUR fall will be out of control and will go well below 1.30.

After some hesitation around 1650 GOLD will try another jump to 1710, and this time i think will be successful, but let's go to 1680 first and then 1710.

Stay tuned for updates, and feel free to post your comments.

Views: 1012

Tags: EUR, GOLD, USD

Comment by sabbir on October 25, 2011 at 5:33am
good posting
Comment by MarlonF on October 25, 2011 at 5:38am
am already short on EU, what should be the target? do u think 1.3830 possible for today or should i wait for more downside?
Comment by MarlonF on October 25, 2011 at 9:31am

and what kind of good news (IF ANY) we can expect from EU tomorrow? and what would be the impact?

 

Comment by Vijay Raghavan on October 25, 2011 at 11:05am
Excellent !
Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 25, 2011 at 11:21am

Some middle east banks are buying EUR and this causes recent movements higher. It's expected the price to test the 1.40 level , remember that in my analisys I've mentioned even 1.4040. We are not going there today. Maybe tomorrow we shal have a spike higher and very quick pullback even a full reverse. Any rise of the EUR will be shortlived, and in mid and long term the outlook is bearish towards 1.30. Some of the traders are waiting for a better price to add to SHORT positions. But my advice is to wait, and do not add more, i doubt you have enough money for that :)

Increasing the budget of EFSF to 1 trillion euros will fuel the upside movement of the EUR. And the news of bakns buying EUR shows me that upside will continue for another 100 pips up at least. So do not take too many SHORTs if you do not have enough money to loose. Recent movement shows EUR is prepaired for a 100 pips jump high. Be carefull!

 

Comment by asif pervaiz on October 25, 2011 at 11:51am
now agree with u
Comment by M Azam A K. on October 25, 2011 at 12:08pm
Hi Vladimir, and all members here...I just joined this community today. I found your blog forum quite informative for me to learn managing forex trade. Thanks!
Comment by MarlonF on October 25, 2011 at 12:09pm
Thanks mate..
Comment by Shaji on October 25, 2011 at 2:39pm
Once again xcellent analysis....Vladimir, do you think for Gold after touching the 1710 or 1740 it should come back to 1600???
Comment by ALHABSHI on October 25, 2011 at 6:44pm
EUR will be 1.28  this year and then 1.15 by begining of next year.

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