EURUSD short projection from Thursday night based on Elliotwave and Volume Distribution is still in progress. As expected, the pair seemed to continue the impulse from Thursday after the Flat correction.
The alternate counts are revised for the continuation of the impulsive wave, and a more transparent structure is now in place. Those, who follow Moving Averages might notice the 200 Day SMA has become a resistance before the decline from the 1.26 price area. Next support is at 1.24 area and break below could take the pair to all the way down to 1.20 with the next major 5th wave impulse.
Eurogroup is expected to meet on Thursday night for another Euro 100 bln. bailout for Spanish Banks, and until then we might see the downtrend to continue. However, the volume in the market should be watched very carefully. CBOE all indices and equity opening Bearish Volume has declined modestly from Friday; however, it is on the rise again after an hour of the opening. We have also found a divergence in formation between $FXE (Euro Currency Share ETF) and $VIX. If this divergence to happen, Euro has to decline massively in terms of the previous divergence outcome.
On the other hand, $VIX also shows a rise in volatility after the complete Head and Shoulder pattern as shown in this image below. The rise in VIX means High Beta and High Bearish Volume Delta for the Euro that also coincide with this $FXE:$VIX analogy.
We have the Elliotwave structure in place for this trade and as we get further confirmation from Volume Accumulation and Distribution as well as VIX, we would take profits in multiple levels and close the position if the Volume unusually spikes up to the upside with a tight Volume-Spread on the H4 Bar.