EUR N USD :::

Main thing to watch next week esp Mon-Tues is the USD... While most are expecting lower euro, I think USD is the main think to watch here... While USD has yet to complete it's move for it needs to hit tgts around to 96 lvl to complete it's soft tgt, main tgt comes to around 94.30-45 depending how soon or late it is coming, if coming..
While USD stays initially under to 9833-35 till around hf way into EU session if it's not been dropping and makes a run higher but fail to take out 9850-55, it would be a rejection and we can see next big leg down to 96 lvl..
9850 is imp for it is now the resis which was the supp of the previous bear channel it was holding on to...
On the other hand, euro is to an extend on the mercy of news coming out of Europe and with Spain / Italy doing the rounds seems to have gone on a defensive mode..

EURO imp lvl is 2790-2805 as the must hold supp.. 2960ish is expected immediate supp and while 3020ish is initial resis a clean break higher exposes 3077-83 and that is the main resis going forward and increasing every 4 hrs...
Most likely we to range from 2960-3020-24 and depending which side USD breaks out euro would head to the opposite direction...
Since 9850 holds out euro under to 2960ish should slip to around 2903-10 providing perhaps the best entry spot to play longs...
Ultimate supp for this week pretty much lies b.w 2785-2800....
Wild Card lvl is 2833 for today and increasing roughly 5 pips a day hence 2837-50 for this week prior to 2800-08 test..
Monday could play dumb and dead for if USD can head higher to 9835 it would take time for it muster a move higher to 9850-55 hence most likely a consolidation perhaps till the NA starts off...

GL...

Tags: /, Pattern, Play, Plays, Resis, Supp, TL, Technicals

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Comment by Tahir Khan on September 23, 2012 at 11:06pm: EUR - AND

AND spotting a possible bull pennant along with a possible descending triangle..
Descending triangle and base is coming in around 2897-2901 for EU session and into NA session... But b4 that watch out for a 2938-41 base of a possible bull pennant.. So in case there is a bounce off 2938-41 becareful... for this is more vivid on the 8 hrs....
In either case the top on both of them comes to around 3020ish... as we progress on to the sessions it is dropping few pips...
In short a bounce of 2938-41 and heading towards 3020ish would be a bull pennant and we than most likely are breaking higher for a 3080ish showdown...
A break under 2938 clean and if the price can start staying under to it, we would be testing 2898-2901 out... Then it been a descending triangle force would be greater to break lower.. Which also means USD should be standing somewhere rt around to 9850 lvl...

But till we go that far on either of it, 2960ish is the supp zone.............

GL....

Comment by Tahir Khan on September 24, 2012 at 10:03am: So far so good... 2897 held out and USD managed close to 9850.... 2942-44 now resis on rallies if heads past 2928 and if the earlier one at 2945 lvl holds out we can head lower breaking the supp for a move down to 2810-16....
Now what's imp here is USD.. A rejection to 9850 upto 9860 till NA session would imply that USD move higher has been a corrective bounce and we are now ready to make a stab lower heading towards 9440-50....... Which means euro should hold out 2890-95 for a bounce higher and been able to take out 2942-44 for a push up towards 3020ish...
USD once again a clean break higher on it above 9850 and eventually heading higher to 9860 would imply it is heading back for the supp of the diamond base now resis at around 9905-12 for today/tomorrow.. This move on USD is require for euro to be under 2890 and for a move to 2810-16 for today and possibly extending lower to 2790-2800 tomorrow b4 either USD breaks higher to 9910-12 2moro else max retrace on USD is over and done...

Imp lvl on EURO ::
2890-95
2810-15
Imp lvl on USD ::
9850 extended to 9860
9905-10 max for 2day regardless...

No time for charts and look for 6145-50 on GU as well for a break under could be a swift drop towards 6010-15...

GL...

Comment by Tahir Khan on September 24, 2012 at 9:58pm: USD - GOTTA LOVE IT!!!!!

I would always try to put a deaf yr to fundamentals as I believe a move even based on fundamental can be caught on technical..
Let's face it... Fundamental in most cases are big news event namely NFP / Interest rates / GDP / Benny Boy / Super Mario / and so on and on... Most likely mkt start shaping in anticipation of these news event 2-3 days in advance.. Either Risk ON or OFF and so on..
Then there are other news event that can come out of the blue, as in a terrorist attack or perhaps a war breaking out are rare scenarios...
I know those who play fundamental moves are basically long term player.. They simply have to be.. The rest trying to play big news event by either placing a buy or sell rt b4 or rather moment b4 the news come out are rather gambling.. Let's face we can't predict anything rather kinda hope it goes in the intended direction... Which brings to the point most as in excessively most traders can't play fundamentals move or rather can't decipher it properly which may cause suffering and temporary madness..
Now been a tech savvy you would know the fundamental move and can still play it on but 5-10 mins after the news is out and whipsaw and spikes here and there are done and mkt is about to settle in for the next directional move that may last 4-6 hrs and may correct next day but gives you enough to satisfy your thirst and be done with the news event.......
Now most here are focusing on lower side on the euro; which is a dangerous game for the masses are usually wrong..........
So here is a small tech play on the USD..........
I mentioned earlier on the USD topping out at 9850-55 and showed it as to why.......... I crossed play it out on the euro and expected move on it based on USD move on the charts..
I'm back on the USD charts once more and I have a message that all those who are BULLISH on USD should take cautious........ You have seen the 8 hrs chart along with the daily (else flip back to last 24 hrs you would see em'.. I think so).......
I'm here with a 4 hrs chart.. Pretty much depicting what 8 hrs has to offer, but since I just did a fresh layout from the start and later figured out is the same as on the 8 hrs.. but what I want to mention is that there is a possible BEAR PENNANT and if spotting it correctly be ready for a drop to 9700 on the USD to start off with.....
As for some clues; SPX held 1450 / GU still above 6150; GOLD refuse to head lower to the 1750 and I actually thought there is no holding it back this time...... but now looking at the bear pennant, a halt to the 9850 precise and seeing that beside 9850 there actually was a better resis at 9870.......
So tomorrow, either USD breaking higher to 9850 and providing confirmation of this break by taking out the BLUE THICK TL around to 9870, don't be banking on USD surge...
Sometimes pattern play can get nasty, and with the actual tgt on USD drop coming to 9440-50, it has a long way down...........
Now; I'm not suggesting anything here, but showing what I think is playing around... Just like a true fundamental trader start positioning itself for the buy the rumors sell fact tactic of trading; there seems to be no different why tech trader won't do as well..
Unlike fundamental traders who carry a wider stop loss. tech traders know where to enter and where to get out with as little loss as possible...
For those who like to play safe can play the breakout........ While supp increasing on the pennant and the resis decreasing the band is closing in and shouting in for a breakout...
The range is 9795-9850 in effect............ I don't have what it needs to break lower to provide confirmation, but been a bear pennant a close under the inclining supp should be enuf.. To the higher though it still would require to start trading above 9850 and take out 9870.....
USD 30 mins as well to show that we broke a diamond on it as well and the highs for today were a retest of it's supp turned resis.. Now a break under 9815 can open up for a decline to commence...

GL...

Comment by Tahir Khan on September 25, 2012 at 9:01am: EUR on 2 hrs and descending wedge

EURO N Descending wedge, while main supp at 2800-10, 2840-44 comes in as a possible point ahead of the main supp and a pattern play can come into effect here...

Up on GU, and 6270 needs to be taken out else risk of the RS formation rt there..
Also on GU hrly a vague ins HNS also is visible and requires a 6270 breakout as well.
USD on the hand has supp main at 9795 and this needs to be taken out for euro / gu and the rest to make a move as well..

GL..

Comment by Tahir Khan on September 25, 2012 at 11:43am: QUCK ON EUR RESIS

Self explained........ Initial resis approaching fast..

GL..

Comment by Tahir Khan on September 25, 2012 at 7:21pm: USD - AND

The band on the USD bear pennant tightening up.. Was expecting a 9795 break for a move lower as in continuation of a down trend but this up move has been a surprised..
Anyways; till it actually breaks higher to 9850 and then provide confirmation by shooting higher 9870-73; we can still it coming lower........
GU is looking fragile for the first time in about a week...
EURO though main supp is 2800, we have 2820ish a bigger number going in 2moro..
A lil cautious and best to wait a USD breakout in either direction..
With tops getting heavier on SPX / GU and GOLD to an extend we might, just might see USD taking off higher..

GL..

Comment by Tahir Khan on September 26, 2012 at 7:58am: USD - FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Unless we go thinking one news event can change things up for the US overnite, let's buy USD in bundles..
If not, then we wait a bit out..
Technically there are some better retrace lvls on euro and other major pairs against the USD for the retrace to get over.. Euro namely 2800-2820... 2820 preferred.
As for USD, it has negated the bear pennant pattern and had achieved a break higher. More pressure on USD for it needs to continue the surge. It has jumped off from a bear pennant to a Bull Channel. Not till it can achieve a close above it's 4 hrs Bull Channel it would be a rather consolidated move on USD, a simple touch of resis and back it goes for testing supp.. Which implies important lvl on euro around 2800 would take time to be broken.. If it requires time; it means there is a greater chance on euro to provoke a bounce from the best possible looking spot to the retrace to be over....

BEst playout is to watch euro coming around to 2820 and USD to around 9880-83 once it can break higher to 9862... Euro bounces would be attractive to buy out....

I have seen at times when patterns fail to playout they are most likely to return back to it within 36-40 hrs.. Only this time with a vengeance..

GL...

Comment by Tahir Khan on September 26, 2012 at 9:40am: Becareful!!

USD holding 9862 and now testing the bear pennant resis turned supp........
A close back under to it and we are back to where we left... USD DOWN.........
I be looking for a 4 and a 8 hrs close coming under 9847-50 for clues..
Not saying it would, but implying if it does, it would represent a rejection........... Fair to say than that the retraces are done... Focus would turn back t

o 9440-50 once we can break under 9800 this time or under to the pennant base...

GL...

Comment by Tahir Khan on September 28, 2012 at 9:03am: 2891 now retest of a breakout lvl on 8 hrs... 2902 on 4 hrs... 2961-64 now median and initial decent resis.. A break can muster strength for a move to 3020 a decent bull tgt.. A break higher to show 3066-71 and would be lovely.. A break under 2885-90 would be a worrying sign and would imply USD perhaps trading higher to 9813-16 it's resis now.. This resis was the supp on the bear pennant as well as the bear flag on the 4 hrs.. hence a strong resis..
Have hit very decent tgt and mucho thnx to OIL and SPX along with some hitting on euro........... GOLD is GOLD and can hardly be wrong on it...
Anyways, It's Friday, lesser trades the better.. while would be hoping to see USD testing 9740 if possible... but not hoping with fingers crossed..
Charts later.......... It's been one of the best week so far this yr......... Things were clearer on direction and just had to hit hard to make it worth while and did it.........

2891 is supp till the start of the NA session.. After 9AM EST, the supp supp on euro is 2880............... SPX 1454 is now the magic number...

GL..

Comment by Tahir Khan on October 3, 2012 at 7:01am: I have a long lasting TL coming in at around 2870 with another one rt at 2865... For me as long as we are above 2860; it is bullish and would only require to make a break higher to 2910-13 to challenge 2960-70 stretched resis..
GU upcoming supp 6089-91 and than 6073....
AUD can drag lower once it's been under to 10287-90.. Upcoming supp 10194 but most likely it can hit 10157-58 supp if bounces off 10194 are shallow..
GOLD is showing imp supp at 1765 as well
Main is the USD.. It is above to 9900 as indicated last nite on previous post and has tested 9916-18 I was pointing out.. This is it here matter of fact..
IF USD holds out under 9920 but also to above 9900; it would be brain wrecking consolidation where by USD can stand around to these lvls for a while but expecting other pairs to make some drop to satisfy their respective supp...
These are not the easiest of time to trade..... atleast not FX and talking about myself.. I do carry a 2962 shorts and a 2809 long on euro... will have to decide which one to close out..
If 9918-20 holds and we get to see a move under 9900 on USD and a close on a 4 hrs esp, we end up closing back in to the bear flag once again.. Then I would expect USD to decline..... A break higher to 9918-20 and can see 2837 test on euro; 10157 on AUD, 6073 on GU and so on..
Up on smaller time frame charts euro does carry a 2885 supp it has bounced..
Ideally scalps for quick ins and outs as long as you know how to pip and a run....... Breakout esp on USD needs to be with a momentum; else beware of fakes.......

GL...