EUR/CHF (daily chart) as of Thursday (10/20/2011) has hit and tentatively respected a key resistance confluence that includes both a long-term descending resistance trend line extending back almost two years, and a key support/resistance line at the important 1.2400 level. Therefore, price is currently at a critical juncture. This occurs after price action rose dramatically (around 2400 pips in total) in a substantial bullish correction extending back to the early August all-time low just above parity. If price continues to respect the current resistance confluence, the next downside support target resides around the key 1.2000 price region, which is an important support/resistance and psychological level. To the upside, in the event of a breakout above the resistance confluence, the key upside target to watch resides around the 1.2700 price region.
(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education