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Daily Market Technicals

GBP/USD has at last sold off, its has breached the short term support line and sits on 1.5645, last weeks low. We look for this to be eroded for losses to 1.5615 (55 day ma) and then 1.5580, the 50% retracement. Slightly longer term, a break below 1.5580 is needed to trigger a move down to sub 1.5300.

Today’s trade: Sell 1.5685, 1.5725 –stops over 1.5815. Cover 1.5375.

EUR/GBP We are clearly wrong on this market, it has broken above key resistance and based near term, using this base as an approximate measurement higher implies a move towards the 0.8552/38.2% retracement of the move down from the June peak and then the 200 day ma at .8632. This has clearly altered the chart picture short term as we must allow for higher prices.

Today’s trade: Shorts stopped, square. Attempt small longs on dips to .8420, .8400, stop .8370. Cover .8550.

USD/JPY is eroding the 79.93/80.25 pivot. It has reached the 80.41/50% retracement of the move seen in 2011. It remains immediately bid while above the 60 minute chart with a Ichimoku cloud will remain and is well supported by 79.63/76 currently.

Today’s trade: Long 80.02, add on dips to 79.76 and place stops 79.60. Cover 81.50.

EUR/JPY continues to push higher. Directly overhead lies a tough band of resistance up to 106.80, which contains the 23.6% retracement of the move down from 2009, the March 2011 low and the 2nd December 2011 high. This is a LOT of resistance and we are wary of profit taking here. Provided dips lower hold over trend line support at 102.20 we will maintain a bullish bias. We note that the cloud support on the 60 minute chart offers support at 105.33/59 and we will assume while above here the market is directly bid intraday.

Today’s trade: Long 105.95, add 105.59 and place stops 105.30. Cover 109.50. 

Attachments:

• Commerzbank.pdf, 779 KB