Dollex vs. EURUSD – A Technical View

Dollar Index:

 

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, bottomed at 73.44 levels on 27th July, which is a two month low. The index is currently at 74.13 levels is expected to rise towards 77.45 levels in medium term. The pattern is following the previous trend as it can be seen from the weekly chart of Dollar Index. The index has witnessed four bottoms since 2008, as they are indicated by the green and black arrows. At the beginning of the M–pattern, the index faced a small hold, which can be from the chart (between the first green and black arrow). The index is presently experiencing the same hold at the leg of the M–pattern, which is the end. The leg of the M-pattern is expected to form a new leg of the W-pattern. In the chart, the first and third dip; the second and fourth dip are connected by two different lines parallel to each other, which are found to be in same length. So, technically the M-pattern ends with the fourth dip at 73.44 levels. So, it is expected to move towards 77.00 levels in the near term. A breakout of the resistance at 74.90 levels would confirm the bullish trend.

 

 

EURUSD Weekly Chart:

 

Conversely, EURUSD is following the W-pattern which is extremely opposite to that of the M-pattern which is being followed by the Dollex. The leg of the W-Pattern is expected to be the new leg of the M-pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD Daily:

 

 The pair which has witnessed the fourth peak at 1.4536 levels is presently trading at 1.4314 levels. Only a break of the key support level at 1.4220 would confirm the bearishness in the currency pair, which can be seen from the daily chart. A break of the same, the pair could face a dip towards 1.4100 levels.

 

  • Immediate Resistance at 1.4440.
  • Immediate Support at 1.4235.

Views: 47

Comment by Nikhil on July 28, 2011 at 1:21pm

Good analysis, Jai

 

It would also be interesting to look at the euro index, because its just not the euro that comprises the USDXY (although more than 50% of it is!)

 

In the short term for EURUSD, the support as you quoted is at 1.4235/45 levels and needs to sustainly breach the levels of 1.45 to target for 1.50 again but then this all looks pessy considering the short ranged volatile moves every alternate week.

 

Given your analysis with USDXY, it would be interesting also to consider the outlook for USDCHF/JPY and the Gold instruments as well. Care to share? 

Comment by Nikhil on July 28, 2011 at 1:30pm
BTW, do you know any mt4 package providing the #DXY chart?
Comment by Jai on July 28, 2011 at 1:39pm

Gud evening, Nikhil!!!

Ya.... its true.... But, Euro is having more than 55% weightage  in Dollex, comparing to other currencies..... The key support was already broken as u can c from the chart... So, further break is also possible Lets c, wats gonna happen by the coming weeks!!!! 

Comment by Nikhil on July 30, 2011 at 5:38pm
Jai, here is what I think and I presented my thoughts in here at http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/blogs/eurusd-weekly-chart-analysis

You are welcome to share and discuss on this :-)

Cheers

Comment

You need to be a member of FXstreet.com Forex Social Network to add comments!

Join FXstreet.com Forex Social Network

Photos

  • Add Photos
  • View All

1 month trial

© 2013   Created by FXstreet.

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service