Danske Bank - "All eyes on the Fed meeting tonight where markets look for a continued soft statement from the FOMC. We do not expect any big changes in the statement as the Fed is likely to stick to the easing bias given the mixed data at the beginning of the new year. With US economic data in focus this week (payrolls on Friday) it is worth noting that US economic surprises have gone from very positive over the recent months to slightly negative - contrary to the development in Europe. This explains part of the current support to the euro (EUR/USD hit our 3M target this morning). Negative US surprises should only be USD negative up to the point where this triggers a correction in risk assets, however. We do not expect any significant market impact of the FOMC meeting, although risks are likely skewed to the upside for the dollar. Notably, US long rates have been grinding higher on the back of the improving global macro picture and declining event risks (this has also helped sustain the move higher in USD/JPY)."