As you can see from the daily chart below, price has been in a range (91.85 - 88.00) since mid Feb. Also note that the 200 SMA has done a pretty decent job of acting as a s/r level during the last few months. I am interpreting price action during the last 10 days as break below the SMA followed by a few retests, the last one being on Fri. My downside bias is further strengthened by the bearish pin bar formed on Friday.

To be fair, it is certainly possible for price to stay within the range and head back up too and one can wait and see what happens when/if price reaches the 80.000 area. That would be a safer way but I am leaning towards acting sooner because of my bearish view of the NZD. The recent down move that commenced on 29 Apr followed by a 50% retrace is giving me another reason to act. We'll see what happens.

 If you have any thoughts supporting or contrary to my view of this pair, I would be obliged if you could share. Constructive criticism will benefit everyone who might read this post.


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