Capital Economics - The close relationship between President Obama’s chances of re-election and the level of the S&P 500 appears to suggest that the stock markets favour a Democrat as President. But it is important not to confuse correlation with causation. Obama’s election chances and the S&P 500 are actually both being driven by the incoming news on the health of the economy. Nevertheless, based on that correlation, we would expect Obama to be re-elected as long as the S&P 500 remains above 1,200.