A CNBC business news piece says - 

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The dollar fell across the board on Friday, hitting a 7-1/2-month low against the safe-haven Swiss franc, as wrangling over the U.S. budget and a lack of clarity over when the Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus curbed demand for the greenback.

The dollar also fell against the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said he was not thinking of lowering the effective corporate tax rate now. That surprised investors who had positioned for a weaker yen on expectations of more fiscal stimulus to prop up the economy.

If the recent past is any indication it might be the 'last minute' before the US budget agreement is reached. That could mean further strength in the Yen on Monday. 

Looking at charts, I see nice H&S patterns on AUDJPY and EURJPY - on the 4 hour time frame. See chart of AUDJPY that has already gone below the neck line and price below 50SMA.

CADJPY seems poised for a downtrend continuation while the hugely overbought CHFJPY shows no such signs. In view of the strength of CHF this is understandable. GBPJPY is also not showing any inclination to the downside. NZDJPY has almost printed a bearish engulfing pattern today - actually I think that this bar is an outside bar and so price is likely to head South. 

So this brings us to USDJPY - the squeeze is obvious on the daily chart, a bearish engulfing pattern and we are likely to see price fall in view of the fundamentals mentioned already.

The jpy pairs are not correlating as they usually do, but since the AUD is getting hammered, my first choice would be to short the AUDJPY, the USDJPY comes a close 2nd. 

Please share your own thoughts and ideas.



Views: 109

Comment by Oasis on September 30, 2013 at 12:29am

Hi Brian, Yes, not too much clarity in the market direction atm.

Comment by Oasis on September 30, 2013 at 2:41am

I think you are correct in having doubts for this trade. Looks as though it will first of all close the gap and maybe even go higher before going down. 



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