Quick Outlook

November Ranges

NZD/USD

Momentum is neutral, volumes are thinning, and the downside risks facing the global economy are more contained. These factors should keep the sideways range intact.

0.8053-0.8310

NZD/AUD

Deteriorating Australian fundamentals mean further appreciation looks likely this month.

0.7793-0.7983

NZD/GBP

Low and slow growth is continuing in NZ and the UK, and neither the BoE nor the RBNZ are expected to touch the policy dial anytime soon. These neutral ‘fundamentals’ mean a break out of the 0.5050-0.5180 range looks unlikely.

0.5085-0.5189

NZD/EUR

The speculative community are still net long NZD/EUR and, with momentum negative, a test of the October 0.6220 lows should not be ruled out.

0.6307-0.6497

NZD/JPY

The negatives for the JPY are piling up and we have revised our forecasts higher. Dips into the 64.00-64.50 window should be viewed as buying opportunities.

64.28-68.09

90-day bank bill

Assuming the RBNZ doesn’t lower the OCR tomorrow, we suspect dips in 90-day bill yields will be limited to 2.59% over the coming month.

2.60%-2.68%