BNP Paribas - "An acceleration of job creations is unlikely to happen in the second half of this year. Regarding both investment and hiring decisions, the business sector will keep on the wait-and-see mood, as long as they do not have a clearer idea of the way the fiscal cliff is to be avoided. The fiscal outlook is blurred. There is no doubt that federal authorities will not the fiscal budget to adjust by 5 percentage points next year. Whether this will be achieved through no cut in spending or no hike in taxes will depend on the outcome of November 6th elections. If the President and the Congress’ majority are from the same party, the solution will appear fast, allowing a rebound as from December. More mixed results would leave uncertainties until earl-2013. This is why we do not expect the labour market to rebound before the turn of the year. As bold as it was, the recent decision from the Fed to launch an open-end open-amount QE will not help in the short term. It could however exacerbate the rebound in activity when the fiscal issue is resolved, allowing the unemployment rate to finally follow a sustained downward path. For September, we do expect non-farm payrolls to increase by just 110-130k, as the manufacturing sector probably shed some more jobs."