BBH -"We make 8 points for the week ahead:
1. Larger trends remain in place. The dollar has appreciated against the yen for twelve consecutive weeks, which appears to be the longest streak in the floating exchange rate era. The euro has risen for six months against the dollar, the longest advance in nearly a decade. The six-month advance against the yen is the longest since 1999.
2. The ECB meeting is important. There has been passive tightening of monetary conditions in the euro area, but we doubt the ECB will cut rates
3. The Bank of England meets, but this will be a non-event.
4. There is one way to reconcile the weakness in Q4 US GDP and the upward revisions to US employment growth (now 201k a month, rather than 151k): a drop in productivity.
5. Japanese rhetoric about the yen is likely to be more tempered in the run up to next the upcoming G20 meeting.
6. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets with a decision early Tuesday in Sydney. Most do not expect a rate cut, seeing a move in March more likely.
7. There was a divergence last week between the official Chinese manufacturing PMI and the HSBC measure.
8. Two central European central banks meet. Poland is expected to cut rates by 25 bp."