Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "We believe the dynamics in the foreign exchange market are changing. After a sustained period of risk-on/risk-off trading dictating foreign exchange movements the market looks to be shifting back to more specific fundamental factors as a driver of foreign exchange. USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/ZAR are examples of currency pairs now being driven by specific factors. Speculative pound positioning indicates there is still ample scope for further selling. IMM data as of 12th February indicates short pound positions are just 38% of the last extreme level reached in October 2011 when GBP/USD fell to levels above where we are trading today. Technically, the breach of 1.5235 yesterday, the intra-day low of 2012 set in January opens up a move back below the 1.5000 level. However, we have now seen a very sharp drop in GBP/USD (12 big figures since the start of the year) and hence some pullback is possible before the breach of 1.5000 materialises. Our three-month GBP/USD forecast is 1.4950."