very very interesting view by Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi - "The EUR/USD rate advanced from an intra-day low of 1.2043 on 24th July to an intra-day high of 1.3172 on Monday, a 9.4% gain, which was fuelled primarily by initial speculation and then confirmation of the ECB bond buying program (OMT – Outright Monetary Transactions) and by speculation and then confirmation of a third round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. There is a growing belief that these policy steps will help reverse the downward trend of EUR/USD. The market consensus forecasts for EUR/USD have jumped notably. We too have raised our EUR/USD forecasts but mainly at the short-end. EUR/USD is still heading to 1.2000 and below, it may just take a little longer than originally expected. (...) Our three, six and twelve-month EUR/USD forecasts are 1.2800, 1.2600 and 1.1800 respectively. These compare to our previous forecast levels of 1.2000, 1.1800 and 1.2000."