AUDUSD Short
The AUDUSD pair is looking very tempting to short once we get the market moving again. Be careful though, there looks to be some upside left and the pair can move further up to the 1.02850 level or a little further before reversing. First, we got some consolidation and slow down in th H1 chart with resistance at the 1.027 mark. In addition, we are in a a squeeze which could fire either way but I am looking to the downside.
In the daily chart we see we are in an overbought area in the stochastics aand what is more interesting are the bearish dojis that closed outside and near the upper bollinger band. Could there be a very bearish Daily bar nearing?
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Comment by James Burke on July 3, 2012 at 11:52am -
Id wait for another bullish bar to pierce the 8 level of the belkhayate timing before shorting. The CoG of the price action seems to be looking to head downward.
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Comment by Peter jcp on July 3, 2012 at 12:04pm -
Morning James - yes I have already had 2 short scalps on the AU since European Opens after it made the 1.0284 high. We need 1.0246 to go to continue with the LH's and then 0230 to make it a serious contender for a swing trade.
My 4 hr daily and weekly are all OB - but as you say unless we go under say 0230 then there is still the possibility of another move over 0275 to stop hunt the 0300+ level - before a proper fall.
Have a good week
Regards
Peter
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Comment by James Burke on July 3, 2012 at 12:17pm
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Yes Peter, I think Im waiting for a spike upward a little over the 0280 mark before shorting, just to give SL some ample breathing room. Ive always noticed before a major swing, major death throw by either bulls or the bears before reversal.
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Comment by Peter jcp on July 3, 2012 at 2:08pm
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Hi James I bought the Au at 0247 expecting a try up again and now at 3pm UK time and 10am NY time i am watching whether we try an new daily high or a LH.
I would normally be selling within the next few minutes based on short term oscillators and other factors pointing to OB again. However there is a perfect opportunity to stop hunt before a fade out so will only come out my scalp buy under 0266 and then review again
Next 2 hrs might be interesting
Regards
Peter
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Comment by James Burke on July 3, 2012 at 2:23pm
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Hey Peter, yeah Id be careful in trying to scalp too much on the upside for some stops will be taken out and then begin to see a fade. Im still holding out a little bit longer cause I do think it will pop up a bit, then Ill try short at 0295 to 0300 level.
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Comment by Peter jcp on July 3, 2012 at 2:30pm
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From a scalper's view now James - I have taken profit on my scalp buy at 0271 and now in a scalp sell at 68 with 66 and 60 needing to go for lower. Failure to drop there will have me looking for another scalp buy and then targets of 77 - 84 and your 95-00 levels.
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Comment by Peter jcp on July 3, 2012 at 2:33pm
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Noticed the pound and EU have retraced further than AU so far and there set ups seem slightly different.The GU as been good for me today and the EU very slow.
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Comment by Peter jcp on July 3, 2012 at 3:00pm
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1.0280 was my top for now James - - a lower high - but unless we have now 0265 and 0260 fall - I think it will still try again . GU as been wild ;-)
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Comment by James Burke on July 3, 2012 at 3:29pm
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Still waiting to see where this latest 1 hr bar closes, then I may enter.
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Comment by Peter jcp on July 3, 2012 at 3:42pm
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With 20 mins left to London close - I have above 0278 still scalp buy mode. Under 81 i can scalp sell with 65 and 60 confirming to me a change in direction.
With the EU and GU both rising it may well be after the close before we see any pullbacks - so will let you know when i see a change as well
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