AUD/USD (daily chart) as of Tuesday (10/11/2011) has tentatively respected key resistance around parity (1.0000), turning down in trading on Tuesday after rising just a few pips above the parity level. This occurs after five straight days of net bullish price action that saw price rise steeply from its 0.9400 support level. Despite these past five days of bullishness, the pair still resides within a strong downtrend, although any subsequent breakout above parity could potentially place this bearish trend in jeopardy, and would then target key upside resistance around the 1.0200 price region once again. If price continues to respect parity within the context of the current bearish trend, price should initially re-target downside support around the 0.9700 price region.
(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education