AUD/USD (daily chart) as of Friday (9/23/2011) has backed off key support around the 0.9700 price region after having broken swiftly and strongly below prior key support around parity (1.0000). Friday’s price action rose up above 0.9800 from its half-year lows just below 0.9700. This pullback occurs after a precipitous 1100 pip drop that started in the beginning of September. After such a plummet, a bullish correction pullback is to be expected, with strong resistance now residing around the parity region. Overall, however, the directional bias continues to be strongly to the downside in line with the steep bearish trend that currently prevails. A re-breakdown below 0.9700 should target further immediate downside around the 0.9550 price region, and then the key 0.9400 support/resistance level, which is also the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the last major bullish correction.
(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education