ANZ - EUR/USD: Topping Within a Range Play; GBP/USD: Another Range Trading Trap

ANZ - "EUR: Recent rebounds to test the 1.33-1.34 area will no doubt raise concern that EUR may be able to post an early push to retest 1.37 or even the declining trend-line around 1.40. However, the show of interim strength is seen as vulnerable. Daily momentum (not shown) is at risk of rolling over and the patterns of price action remain very much that of a series of corrective moves within a broader and frustrating trading range. The bias within this pattern is that EUR is likely to top out around 1.34 and any interim slippage below 1.3275 could trigger a relatively sharp pullback to initially 1.3050.
Failure to find support at 1.3050 would add to the likelihood of broad range trading (and a bout of USD strength as suggested by the TWI) and lead to a retest of the lower bound or the trading range in the 1.27-1.28 area. This implies that moves above 1.3350 should be seen as a selling opportunity (or a bull-trap for EUR).
GBP: The longer term profile for GBP/USD remains that of a broad trading range developing between the 1.40’s and 1.60’s. Within that broader range an inner trading range is developing.
Figure 5 focusses upon that inner range and highlights that the spike below 1.50 in July was an interim GBP bear-trap. Although current gains appear relatively dynamic, they are also at risk of triggering another range trading trap (in this case a GBP bull-trap) above 1.5650.
Any slippage now below 1.5575 could be enough to trigger a series of retracement slides back through the range of recent weeks for initially a test of 1.5200 if not 1.5000.
Even if GBP were to hold above 1.5575, a weekly close above 1.5820 would be needed to suggest that the bull-trap scenario is incorrect."

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Comment by Daologic on August 23, 2013 at 11:02am

Excelent analisys from ANZ.


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