ANZ - "Early February’s faltering test of 1.3710 is considered to have completed an interim up-leg within a broad consolidation off last year’s test of 1.2030-40. This suggests that EUR/USD will be range bound for much of this year. However, the near-term bias will be for a ratcheting slide to retracement and previous support during H1. The anticipated path is outlined in Figure 6. A near-term rebound and close above 1.3160 is needed to avoid an early spike towards 1.2880 (50% of rebounds off 1.2030-40). However, even if EUR/USD does regain levels above 1.3160 the potential of a squeeze should be limited to the 1.3350-75 area before overlapping slippage resumes towards the 1.2600-1.2700 area.
In broader terms, slippage towards November’s 1.2700-25 low should be seen as a buying opportunity."