ANZ - "The failure of mid-October rebounds to retest the 1.3150 area (38.2% of 2 years range) confirmed the “top” of an initial up-leg. This should be seen within the context of broader corrections off July’s 1.2060 low. EUR/USD should now retrace into the 1.2475 (61.8%) - 1.2740 (38.2%) area (50% at 1.2605-10) over the coming couple of weeks before forming a base and allowing for a secondary, but corrective, rebound towards the upper end of the 1.3150-1.3500 area into 2013.
The daily bar chart focuses in on the failure in the 1.3150 area and highlights that a close below 1.2865 (minor rising support) should trigger the next retracement to at least 1.2740.
A sharp rebound above 1.3020 is needed to reduce the current bias for deeper retracements.
In summary: Corrective rebounds off 1.2060 should continue, but only after interim retracements towards 1.2600. Assuming that a sound base forms, secondary (corrective) rebounds should push towards the upper end of the 1.30-1.35 congestion area into 2013."