1- Germany may isolate itself "economically" from the EU, If seen, It won't pay a single EURO for any country !!!
2- U.K is the hidden player behind the last rise that resumed last Nov (1.2661), it may stop supporting the euro during the coming weeks or months..
3- Will US economy grow in 2013?!!!
Forecasters say not much,but slowing economy in Europe and China, added to that Obama's administration is trying hard to re-arrange the US house, so most likely the USD will gain against the EURO !
There is a fourth point "fact" but not confirmed , Spanish economy could collapse by the end of 2013?!!
Technically ; As long as 1.2661 holds on a weekly closing basis, the bullish view will remain strong, below 1.2661 will bring a free fall to 1.2000/1.1600 levels...
On the upside, the pair may spike to 1.3850 levels before the big fall, this view is valid as long as 1.2997 holds on a weekly closing basis....
Most likely the EURO will reach 1.2000/1.16000 by the end of 2013 to the middle of 2014 !!!
Best Regards
Haitham
Comment by Peter jcp on January 24, 2013 at 9:18am Morning Haitham - I agree with your thoughts etc - although UK just want a better deal to stay in the Eurozone and i dont blame them trying as Brussels is just another name for inefficiency and waste of EU monies.
However I reckon over 80% of investors ./ traders expect the the EU to go down during the next 12 months - ie below 1.2000 - and because of that - that is exactly the reason the big players might say lets make sure it does not go down under say 2300 or 2500.
Sentiment is really traders biggest enemy - most of the time it is set up deliberately incorrectly and if say 70 -80% of traders believe it will go under 1.2000 - that normally ties up with how many traders are normally wrong ;-))
Just food for thought
Have a great day
Regards
Peter
Comment by Haitham653 on January 24, 2013 at 9:45am Hi Grigore....
France has been living on the sale of nuclear reactors, do you know what is that supposed to mean !!
France is strong and powerful country , even If French economy goes down, that would be like a flu in winter ...
French economy is one of the strongest economies in the Europe and the world....
It's impossible to collapse, noway !!!
The country who faces real threats in the Euro zone "Spain" !!
Not sure about that, Spanish economy may collapse by the end of 2013, even Spain may leave the EU !!!
Comment by Uschi on January 24, 2013 at 10:18am but if a weak country, like spain or greece will leave the eurozone this would support the currency, or not?
Comment by Haitham653 on January 24, 2013 at 10:31am Hi Uschi..
I agree with that 100%...
Any weak county will leave the EURO , that would support the euro strongly, but this is not my point...
My basic points based on the 3 points in the main post above...
About leaving the EURO zone, it may not happen at all, but If It will happen, most likely the EURO will be around or below 1.2000 levels when it happens !!! Not now !!!
Comment by benyamin fard on January 24, 2013 at 10:36am Hi dear , i have question about today , do you think Euro Back to 1.3290 zone today? , i looking for 1.3271 for today?
Comment by Haitham653 on January 24, 2013 at 10:44am As long as 1.3354 holds, It may even break below 1.3250 levels !!
Comment by benyamin fard on January 24, 2013 at 10:47am Thank you dear, you are the best, God Bless You ,
Have good trade
Comment by Jason on January 24, 2013 at 10:54am Hi Sir
What do you think of the GBP ?
It appears to me that there is a rising trendline since the 1.40 s low on the monthly chart.
The trendline support is now at 1.5820 on a monthly chart so I reckon that this level gives way, the GBP may move big on the downside.
What do you think ?
Thanks Sir.
Comment by Uschi on January 24, 2013 at 10:54am sure haitham, this was not meant in relation to your outlook, but in a general way,
but i really don´t think germany will return to the DM for several reasons, ie. a weaker currency is of some advantage for them as a country of export,
Comment by Florence Lery on January 24, 2013 at 11:08am The WORLD is bankrupt...
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