Comment by Lisa on January 5, 2013 at 4:30am

con't ...

The BULLs could simply be revisiting the choppy *old* SUPPORT levels : 

I think those were the most interesting moves to close-out the week.

Have a good weekend,

Comment by Lisa on January 5, 2013 at 5:13am

Comment by Peter jcp on January 5, 2013 at 11:48am

Hi Lisa - First of all I wish you a very profitable 2013 and I really do hope it's your best year to date. You are certainly taking on a big challenge with 9 pairs continuously and even with the offsetting - are you sure you are maximising your revenue potential with out exposing yourself to too much risk?

I know you are aware you can make more money achieving just 100 pips a week then even 500 pips a week on lower stakes and tighter controls - and after all the money result is far more important than big pip numbers.

It terms of efficiency and less time spent watching charts - I think it is a lot better for you and your lifestyle. I would also agree just trading one or two pairs would not achieve the same result - but this "less is more" argument might favour 4 to 6 pairs rather than 9 - but you will know yourself as it progresses over this next 3 months.

Good Luck and I hope you will keep us all updated on how it goes and then even whether you plan to try and take on any more pairs as well (phew!)

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Lisa on January 5, 2013 at 4:07pm

Good Morning c[_] ☼ , Peter

Hope your enjoying the New Year and looking forward to your Birthday.

If you had arrived on 31st you would have been a tax write-off & had a party wherever you went;

how’s that for efficiency ~ lol (kidding, kidding)

yes ~ my goal has been 9 pairs.

My long term goal is to get into other markets outside of currencies; Futures, Options etc.

“Since life (and the currency market) is so uncertain, spread your financial investments out.”

“Cast your bread on the surface of the waters, for you will find it after many days.”

Cast is better rendered “send”, ...

"surface of the waters" refers to the commercial sea trade.

“Bread” refers to grain from which bread is produced.

Solomon was deeply involved in international trade with countless merchants. 

Then as now, one of the main trade commodities was grain.

The merchants of Solomon’s day would load their grain ships and send them off.

The Israelites were “casting their bread upon the water.”

But notice that with Solomon, the word is plural: “cast your bread on the waters.”

In other words, don’t put all your grain in one ship.

Put your wheat in several ships, and send it out in a diversified way so that if one of the ships

should sink, you’ll not be ruined. 

In others words, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Diversify your portfolio.

Applying this to the currency market, if I had been staring at the EUR/USD tick chart all day

yesterday, I would have missed the moves on the other pairs.

The BULLs move the EUR/USD 90 *pips* yesterday and 110 *pips* on the NZD/USD.

The EUR/USD also spent 4 hours consolidating.

When I’m able to get into other markets, I’ll definitely cut down on the amount of currency pairs.

There is a point where too much can be like herding cats ...

and it’s up to the individual to know how much they personally can handle. 

No matter how you want to look at it … *pips* equal profit.

If 2 traders risk 1 lot, obviously the trader that has disciplined themselves to let their trade run

makes more money the more *pips* they accumulate. 

I’m convinced that those who make the real money, make-it by letting their winners run ...

& that has been my experience.

"It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting."

It’s inherently too risky to risk large lots on small, non-directional price fluctuation.  

Each price fluctuation is simply a separate order ...

and means nothing when it comes to price direction.

If a retail trader, who can’t move the market, SELLs just because there was a SELL order

placed, and the consensus is on the BUY side, he’s eventually going to get trampled ...

"Picking up nickels in front of a steamroller” ~ in my opinion, it's not wise :

I consider scalping more of an adrenaline rush, but not a trading business plan.

I’ve been there, done that and it is very time consuming with lots of screen time ...

and long term it’s not that profitable (all my personal opinion & experience)

It leads to over-trading and taking profits too early etc. etc. 

Trading markets is paradoxically juxtaposed to traditional work.

Traditionally, the more & harder one works the more profit they can make.

Ironically, the less one works (meaning the less *active* they are) in the market ...

the more profit they can make.

Trading is more of a psychological endeavor than an physically (mouse clicking) active one.

Lifestyle is big attraction too.

My boys are still out of school & I’m able to spend more time with them ...

when my strategy is more of "monitoring price trends" than watching price fluctuations.

I home-school my daughter; she’s getting older and has lots of activities.

I try to prepare healthy meals and housekeeping is also important to me.

I also need more physical activity ~ definitely after the holidays ! (ღ˘◡˘ღ)

My favorite *trend-trading* song ♪♫•*¨

♪ღ♪**¨¨*•.¸¸¸.•*•♪ღ♪¸.•*¨¨**•♪ღ♪•*♪ღ♪**¨¨*•.¸¸¸.•*•♪ღ♪¸.•*¨¨**•♪ღ♪•*♪ღ♪**¨¨*•.¸¸¸.•*•♪ღ♪¸.•*¨¨**•♪ღ♪•*

Comment by Peter jcp on January 5, 2013 at 6:13pm

Hi Lisa - Its a new year 2013 and were do I start ( lol). It been at least three or even six months since we have had a good debate about the best ways to make money out of currency trading - and I can see you have still not taken "on board" my points - but I will persevere - because then if anyone else follow what i am saying - they might have a better job making you see what I am on about ;-))  ( woman - don't you just love them ) 

Ok - point by point from your reply  - ( avoiding politicians love of avoiding the questions ) 

1. My Birthday is between January 10th and the 15th  ( I will tell you afterwards) and I think I was a tax loss for my parents - as the only child - and must have cost them a "bomb" ( lol)

2. "Dont put all your eggs in one basket"  agree with you. Its sensible to diversify and yes I normally trade 3 to 5 pairs but never more than 2 simultaneously scalping. (This is the bit you just dont understand with me but i will explain it further on in another point.)

3. Diversifying in other financial markets is OK - but its the same industry as forex - so still risk plagued - you would be better diversifying in other markets such as art or internet or new businesses etc.

4. History from the past - yes love it ( yawn )

5.- Your quote -  "no matter how you look at it pips equal profit" - only partly correct and I will try and explain why, - It is possible to make say for example 143 positive pips in a week and still make a loss or be down. 

I will explain - you are trading on say 4 pairs all with different lot sizes due to risk associated with different trades - either 1 hr offsets or daily long term. Anyway - you end up losing 350 pips on say 2 bad trades - but make 493 pips on 4 grate trades - so net position 143 pips positive

However your losses were at say 2 lots and you wins were only at 1 lot - so 350 x $20 = $7000 loss and your wins of 493 pips were at 493 x $10  = $4930.

So you are up positive 143 pips - but you have lost $2070  ( 7000 - 4930 )

Now let me take this further - because I am frustrated ( getting old and dealing with too many woman  - only joking ) - i know you cannot see this - 

I know a trader in the UK - who is a similar type of trader to me - who is quite happy to achieve just  70 pips a week ( 280 a month) and works less than 10 hrs a week - and makes between - $300 and $500k per annum. He only ever trades 2 pairs - and not everyday and most trades are easily under an hour. 

How does he do it -  because he ignores all the old school theories and works purely on the principle of risk to reward - time efficiency and cherry picking his trades. He might take 5 in one day - he might go 2 days with not bothering. A 5 trade day even with one or two wrong can be worth over $20k to him.

So if you have stops of 70 pips or say 150 pips or say none at all - like I think you are playing with - you are hardly going to put 20 or 50 lots on ;-))

However when he is looking at stops under 10 pips for 15 -30 pip targets - he can find if he needs to several trades a session and then loads up heavily using a lot size 10 time larger than a 100 pip stop risk ( please tell me if your are not following this part) 

If he gets it wrong - so what he knows in under 30 mins - if he gets it right he know again similar time.

It's what's know as efficiency - (not waiting a day to see if you have lost or 2 - 5 days to see if you are in the money)

A classic case of no stops is Brian with his yen pairs - he's been waiting well over a month - and still in a negative position . I appreciate you will say - no I will not allow that to happen and will offset etc etc - and so thats' good - but hedging - offsetting etc etc - are still just staring into space not knowing an outcome ;-))

I will repeat again Lisa - a 30+ pip trade with a small stop is far better than a 200 pip stop and a 600 pip win - when will you get it ????

Its fine when its complimentary - when its just another trade in your portfolio etc - ie its not a bread and butter requirement etc etc - but you need diversification - like you have already mentioned - not all your eggs in one basket - ie not all long term investment trades  - you need a mix 

Remember investors only make big money if they already have big money. - So $10 million at 20% a year is OK - i would be happy 

But 20 or even 40% on just say $10k capital is "cra....." very poor - you need your 100% and more on all capital sizes under $100k+ 

I think you will say I expect to make over 100% or even 200% per annum - but I cannot see it without stops and better risk control ?? I hope I am wrong 

Yes let you wins roll - but then don't see half of them lost in 4 hrs or a day after 3 days growth.- like a few other traders on this forum seem happy to do.

You have to work hard to get anywhere in any job - I have done well over 10k live hrs chart watching and probably over 10k live trades  over 8 yrs plus. Seven year ago I use to think like you - but experience tells me there are no short cuts - less effort and work - less rewards ;-)))

PS - my first trade on Friday after London Open was a profitable trade with an RR of 3 in less than 30 mins. No it did not make me $5k - but I could have easily finished for the day and say - why bother looking for any more trades - lets go out shopping ( agghhhh )

Please please - I am only trying to make you see the "other side" - just like in "politricks" - and I am not charging you anything for all my advice at normal rates - ( the invoice is in the post lol)

Have a great weekend and I really do want your way to work for you 

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Lisa on January 5, 2013 at 7:36pm

Risk reward doesn’t get you were you want to go, Peter.

You know I strictly adhered to R/R levels and over-managing a trending position isn’t ...

the most profitable way to trade.

Getting too crazy with risk / reward and you "choke" the trade ...

no matter what timeframe you trade.

The smaller the most pervasive, actually :

Brian doesn’t trade price patterns ~ he’s trading a mathematical equation.

It’s as your favorite expression Peter “chalk & cheese” :

... very different and have nothing in common

Trading without hard STOPs isn’t the same as trading without a mental STOP.

The majority of successful traders aren’t short term speculators / scalpers.

Not that it can’t be done.

I never say never.

All I’m saying be prepared for what your signing-up for ....

when one locks yourself into strategy that requires countless hours of screen time ...

scalping minute price fluctuations.

If you enjoy that, more power to you.

Working hard at trading is more working on your psychological inner-workings (fear & greed)

than clicking the BUY & SELL button ~ that’s what I’m saying. 

Patients is virtue ~ you collect your profit when "the job" is over.

If you can’t handle letting a trade run several days, that’s your purgative.

7 years ago I scalped & found it unproductive & unprofitable long term.

So ~ you can scalp & payer higher taxes ...

thinking your politicians know how to spend your earnings better than you do ...

I’ll maximize off trends and vote against high taxes because all politicians are crooked.

How many ways can we disagree, Peter ~ lol 

Comment by Peter jcp on January 5, 2013 at 8:37pm

That's a shame then Lisa - if you had been able to progress your scalping from 7 yrs ago - you would have been better scalper than me today and you would then be  thinking its worth spending 2 or 4 hrs "glued" to your chart to make several thousand dollars.

When I was full time at work - I got well paid but would work sometimes 10 -12 hr days as well as some weekends - that would not be counting getting to and fro to work commuting etc.

Nowadays I am only 2 mins from my home office desk - can start any time 7 am - or 11 am or even 2pm and work 3 hrs or even 6 hrs solid. Hardly hard work  Lisa - in fact a piece of cake to other work I have done ;-))

Yet again - ( again) you are wrong on your interpretation - RR;s are so important on multi trades in a short  time period.

Chose a time period - lets say 1 day or whatever period you want too ?,

In one full day if you can take say 10 trades - and conclude every one in under and hr - lets even say 2 hrs and get 70% correct - with small stops and 15 -40 pip targets you will have on say 2% risk per trade a daily result as follows 

 - 7 trades good - say best RR -4 average - 2 worst - I -  result 2 x 4 once - 8% - 2 x 2 five times - 20% - 2 x 1 once -total 2% - total 30%  - minus 

3 bad trades of 2% loss each equals - 6% off 30 % - net result 24 % gain in capital in a day - finished and in your account to compound for next day.

If you are only averaging RR trades of 2 or 3 over a few days or weeks - then you cannot have the money to compound so quickly and your money results will not expand so quickly.

So the key is multiple trades of trades with RR's over 2 all ideally within 30 mins but 1 or 2 hrs is OK  - then rinse and repeat.

You saw in the recent demo competition - the guys take $25k up to several millions in under  2 months - from a 5 min chart - multi trading and compounding daily - or twice daily. He was also letting some trades roll but was pyramiding and peeling - just like scalping but only in one direction.

You would not want to do that with any real account over 10K as too much risk placing up to 10% of your account size on each trade - but even on just 1 or 2% and compounding daily - its massive growth - but only if you are good - and as you say Lisa most shorter term intraday traders are not that good - its only going to be 10 -20% of traders who get there.

A lot of traders are happy as "investors" - simply because they think its the best way to achieve the best results ( wrong) - but as as you say - we are all different and so do whatever "floats you boat" 

PS - I have the patience of "job" ( jobe) can leave trades on for weeks if needed - but also know its cash what counts for me - not old fashioned theories lol

PPS - forex trading in UK for spread betters is tax free - I am not stupid Lisa ;-)))

Comment by Lisa on January 5, 2013 at 8:42pm

definitely not worth-it [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅1̲̅)̲̅$̲̅]٩(-̮̮̃-̃)۶ 

Comment by Peter jcp on January 5, 2013 at 8:47pm

Just prove me wrong Lisa - then I will listen to the alternatives ;-))

Comment by Lisa on January 5, 2013 at 9:05pm

Peter ~ you don’t have to trade the way I trade ...

isn’t that wonderful !  (✿◠‿◠) ‏

The markets aren’t dictatorships.

They are very open.

You can BUY & SELL as much as want, where and when you want.

I always recommend that each "trades his own".

If you enjoy scalping ~ carry-on and be merry.

Makes no difference to me (?)

You’re not paying my bills.

I’m not trying to prove anything.

Seems to me I had to tell another fella I wasn’t trying teach him anything ...

over zealous and a bit uptight among other attributes.

Cultural break-down is all I can figure (?)     Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ

Comment

• ‹ Previous
• 1
• 2
• Next ›
• Page