Comment by Dr. Sivaraman on December 7, 2012 at 2:47pm

Dear All

Players made  USD gaining move after NFP......now on they are  expected to make risk appetite move........Players create the market sentiments and act against the traders!!!!!!! every time !!!!!

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

Comment by Peter jcp on December 7, 2012 at 2:59pm

That is one "belief" I hundred percent agree with Dr. The market sentiments need to be created - so to earn the "players" there rewards on the massive amounts of capital they use - to change the directions.

However, they do even deceive each other - as all are after their own "edge" as probably seen with the HFT "excuse". That's why I believe "algo's" forecasting over a certain time period can be as accurate as building the "picture" from intra day sessions - unless you are able to live with very large drawdowns - or the inefficiencies of hedging.

Have you not found your own intra day methods to be more accurate then weekly or monthly forecasting ?

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Alan Hill From Sarrafx Trading on December 7, 2012 at 4:30pm

It seems that we are heading back towards fundamentals! That is what yesterdays move in Euro showed me

Comment by Dr. Sivaraman on December 7, 2012 at 4:53pm

Dear peter and Alan

The players act as one group and not as presented to us as "bulls" and "bears".The players alone can do circular trades using bank terminals.Even many banks may not know that their arms are used by the players for order flow.Even the bank dealers in trading room  feel many times that they have  done the wrong analysis and trades and still they were rewarded- because such trades are used for circular trades.

Hnece we find forcible crussing  and not drops -  today euro came down only  from 1.2915 to 1.2880 = 35 pips but they did the move for 15-20 min towards close of European session- that would have influended many traders to liquidate the long positions.Then gap time and early US sessions they have slowly gained the levels absorbing all the liquidation of the long positions out of fear before week end close.

Can the world economy change  in a matter of 20-30 min - but the market sentiments can be changed - if we donot understand  and fail to realise that we are misguided we end up holding the same bearish or bullish fell and continue our market perception that way - so we fail to buy low then as trader we get the next alternative is to sell near the reisistance ...but the players continue to absorb all the sells and rise and hold high and make further rise to create the feel that resistance turn support - then all become bullish - but the players are sellers.

It is endless trick and still we as traders worry about the economic conditions of various countries - the distraction to our focussed trading. 

So in my understanding of markets - the quick moves are false and fear creating moves to change the traders sentiments - later the slow moves are their real intentional moves.

 

In the financial markets it is most of the time  the competion between the traders and the players.excepting during natural calamity times and unexpected breaking news.There again the players double up their positions in the opposite side and earn back their money.As small traders we have only one option - to read their intentions from their market moves and control the market fear..That can be achieved only by taking very less position each time - so the equity erosion will not create fear  the we will have the chance to use the common sense to avert financial calamities.

The last and first weeks of the month you would have noticed that during start of the week traders might be either bullish or bearish and end of the week the opposite would have happened.So it is high time we read the weakness and limitations of the players and trade along with them to earn our money.We can never fight against their might.

This is only my personal opinion.may be wrong perception also.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

Comment by Peter jcp on December 7, 2012 at 5:08pm

Thank you for sharing your personal opinion. I find it very interesting and do agree with many of your  views - if not all your forecasts.I read that you are still very bullish with your monthly and quarterly views and I wish you good luck. 

Thank you again and regards Peter

Comment by Srinivas dev on December 7, 2012 at 5:38pm

very interesting analysis Dr. Sivaraman. Just want to know did you work with BARC (MUMBAI) ?I feel I must have seen you there in Anushaktinangar Sometime?

Comment by Gregor on December 7, 2012 at 7:09pm

Dear dr. Sivaraman,

I'm following your strategies for quite some time and I have to say you are amaizing. The only thing I cannot understand is how are you able to forecast longer-term PA with your methods... 

Wish you all a very nice weekend,

G.

Comment by Jason on December 7, 2012 at 8:43pm

Hi Dr

 

Can I find out your view on the cross jpy pairs for next week ?

Thanks

Comment by Dr. Sivaraman on December 8, 2012 at 2:48am

Dear Peter:

I donot become bullish or bearish at any given time.I only find out before hand from my forecast algorithm whether the players are going to rise or drop the currencies.My derivation says the majors are expected to rise more in coming days..Still the market has to prove whether I am right or wrong.

have a nice week end

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

Comment by Dr. Sivaraman on December 8, 2012 at 2:51am

Dear Srinivas dev:

I did not work with BARC.I frequentrly visit Mumbai on business to meet fund managers. in 2004-05.Now every thing is online.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

Comment

• ‹ Previous
• 1
• 2
• Next ›
• Page