mr.Draghi's comments and NFP release on Friday didn't leave the EUR many chances for recovery. Please take a look on Weekly , you can see there clearly this is the thrid bottom at 1.2805 after the middle of March, then middle of May and now we are close to the middle of July. So we have a repeating pattern every two months with 1.2805 bottom. Breaking below is not impossible, but will be too risky. Looking at the Monthly there is something like a small H&S and we are currently building the right shoulder. On breaking below 1.2780 we may test the 1.2700 area, and breaking below that last will take us to 1.2640. Below 1.2640 we are going to 1.2400, but i won't comment that for now because it is still too far, and EUR soon needs a correction move higher. We have 3 weeks of heavy losses and the EUR dropped for nearly 600 pips. Today's economic data from Europe is expected to be worse again, and later today mr.Draghi will speak again, so more significant moves will be later today maybe with the beginning of the american session. On Wednesday we shall have the FOMC rate decision and mr.Bernarke speaks in the late american session, then i am expecting some big moves and volatility will be supported by the BoJ rate decision on early Thursday. I expect for this week at least one test of 1.2750 and recovery to 1.2900 for example.
GOLD has stabilized for now above 1200. Smaller time frames show we are in a tight consolidation, which may turn into a quick recovery to the upside, take this in mind when trading GOLD in the days ahead.
Short EUR below 1.2840 SL 1.2855 TP 1.2800-1.2780-1.2750
LONG EUR above 1.2780 SL 1.2765 TP 1.2850-1.2900-1.2950
SHORT GOLD below 1230 SL 1235 TP 1200-1180
LONG GOLD above 1235 SL 1230 TP 1250-1270-1290