USDCAD: Risk Points To The 1.0341 Level And Beyond.

USDCAD: With the pair continuing to maintain its upside bias, further upside offensive is likely. In such a case, the 1.0293 level will come in as the next upside target where a violation will aim at the 1.0341 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0400 level with a violation calling for a run at the 1.0450 level and then the 1.0450 level. However, if its upside fails, the 1.0082 level will come in as the next downside. A breach will turn attention to the 1.0000 level. On continued decline, support comes in at the 0.9903 level where a breach will target the 0.9800 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the upside in the short term.

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Comment by talisman on April 23, 2013 at 12:14am

what specifically would indicate to you that the upside has failed? do you have a level in mind that it needs to break to change your bias to bear? 1.0230 seems logical as a stop area for longs, and as an important area from a technical point to initiate shorts for those folks interested.

with all due respect your analysis is somewhat vague to actually pull the trigger on much of anything.

Comment by talisman on April 23, 2013 at 12:16pm

that is interesting jasmine - we are consistantly on opposite sides of the market. i am in this trade long already so we ll see what happens. i do not set firm targets as a rule so you wont see them on my chart.

i cant remember who the person was who liked to play breakouts of wedges but this would be a good example of one.  for me it has a higher likelihood to break out long, but i believe it will breakout in one direction or the  another direction.

it is nice to see you actually have a plan to get in, and get out.  analyzing not worth much if you cant actually use it.

i was thinking the other day about the gu trade i posted . my entry was close to  some analysis on this site.  i closed my trade off with a small win.  the gu continued on in lala land doing nothing. had one followed the analysis on this site they would still be in a trade that went nowhere.  there was no followup, and no real guidance on trade management.  it would be refreshing to see more well rounded guidance ..anyone can analyze.  you might as well just write " trendlines " like that fella on one of oasis posts.  boy theres a showstopper, i never heard of trendlines, i imagine everyone rushed right out to get all the reading they could on this mysterious new approach called " trendlines" , geez

Comment by talisman on April 25, 2013 at 3:44pm

i closed my long for a loss.  the trade was within my parameters so thats life. on the break of D i entered in the opposite direction as per my guidelines.  the new trade will be breakeven for sure because i dont trade fridays and move all open trades to breakeven and trail stops till monday.  i wanted to show how these two legged retracements work since i talked about them in another post.  in a perfect world it would have never broken point C to initiate the long that failed but thats real life trading.  jasmines thesis was correct at the end of the day , well actually at the end of three days but im sure you get the point.  see chart.

im off to hawaii tuesday with my wife , my 3 adult children, 1 teenage daughter, everybodys spouse and my 2 grandchildren so i wont be ruffling too many feathers for 10 days...but ill still be watching . daddy is paying so everbody is happy .

Comment by talisman on April 26, 2013 at 3:36pm

it looks like plan B of the original post is going to be the more likely out come.  a good example of why we must remain flexible and open minded. getting hung up on a biased analysis is the death of many a trader.  breaking convincingly down the task of management comes in to play.  my approach is generally to move stop to swing highs on single legged pullbacks.  there is nothing particularly magical about this but it can be difficult when the impulse moves leave a lot of exposure and risk of losing what you ve gained.  understanding that to get the most out of moves in the long run this heat is something you must learn to endure has been one of my greater challenges. as the market nears the 1.0082 major support level mentioned in the original post i will likely tighten stop and trail dynamically.  see chart.

this original post ( not mine ) has given a good opportunity to show how the rubber can hit the road when somebody posts an analysis.

Comment by Oasis on April 26, 2013 at 3:40pm

@Talisman - I read somewhere that you are going to an exotic place for a holiday. Hope you get a lot of R&R and have fun.

Regards

Comment by talisman on April 26, 2013 at 6:15pm

@peter-that is an interesting chart , a little different for you. you usually write a little something with your stuff but you didnt so i ll ask a couple questions. if you went back in time and looked at the dip just after the first lh you marked, at that point in time would you have considered it a buy bouncing off your line ( which ultimately failed )? if not why not. at what point specifica;ly would you have entered short, at the break during the dip after second lh you marked, at the first retest, or at the second retest( and in hind sight the best entry but the hind sight one always are )? as the market moves in your favor and knowing as a rule you dont like exposure obviously the line that got you in is not the line that will get you out.  what method would you recommend to manage this position?   i am looking forward to your responses. 

as this chart moved east from its high it eventually showed a tightening wedge that ultimately broke south, although the tendency for these types of formations is to break in the direction of the entry to the wedge ( north in this case ).  i liked this trade example as it showed a failure, and (hopefully) a success immediately after in the other direction due to listening to what the market was telling me rather than me trying to control it and forcing an idea.

Comment by talisman on April 27, 2013 at 12:43am

sounds good-i wouldnt say not checking a pair is a weakness.  focusing and becoming familiar with certain pairs is all you really need.  a lot of people try to trade too many pairs and end up not giving proper attention to any of them.  thx for the response and explanation.

Comment by talisman on April 29, 2013 at 1:01pm

i have a little time so decided to continue posting as this trade progresses.i have moved stop to next swing high after breaking swing low. see chart.  i will continue to do that until it gets close to the main support aroun 10082 and then tighten my stop and trsil dynamically.  if it decides to crash through i will continue following the LH s until it eventually creates a HL and takes me out.

Comment by talisman on April 29, 2013 at 2:26pm

@jasmine-it guess it really doesnt matter that we see it differently, what matters is if we see a similar pattern we see the same thing as we saw before.  consistancy is a cornerstone to success.  the markets are dynamic and its up to the trader to create a constant imo. i have a difficult time articulating this concept but it is something that has become part of my intuitive understanding.  i find people in general get to wrapped up  in whats right and wrong, where a pair is going , why its going etc blah blah .  this trade is going well for me and thats nice.  the original trade failed for a loss.  this gain has wiped out that loss so net positive and thats the goal.

as a comment, and please dont take offense, trendlines do work well for some people but the problem with them is they are subjective.  the trick to using them successfully is to do them the same way every time.  that is something that is much more difficult to do than it is to say.  horizontal lines by their very nature are much less subjective.  check other peoples charts and you will see they usually draw similar horizontal lines but that is not the case for diagonal trend lines.  not saying you cant trade with trend lines, its just much more difficult to be consistant.

 

Comment by talisman on May 3, 2013 at 6:28am

i wanted to finish this trade off, it did end up with about 135 pips profit closing with just under 3rr. all i have is an i phone chart.  aloha.

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