Comment by Peter jcp on November 18, 2012 at 6:02pm

I will check out the magazine article Brian - and yes I also have a greater respect to Gann and his work than probably other well known trading theories. As Raj says with all the tech tools etc he has tried - they all work some of the time - with a few working more often, I remember reading a few years ago that some university that had been commissioned to carry out studies on trading indicators over the long term. They found that most are only accurate only 45-55% of the time.

The few that work over 60% of the time can then used to compliment each other (probably like Raj is doing) to get your probability over 70+%.

The problem is then if we are looking over say the next 3 or 5 years and say 500 to 1000 live swing trades - the law of averages will come into play - and so on say 1000 trades - even with 85% accuracy ongoing( extremely rare as far as i am concerned) you will still have 150 trades go wrong and 850 winning.

If then some marketeer chooses a period over the 3 years of say 3 or 6 months - he could then prove either 100% success - ie possible to do say 30 -50 trades in a row - with no losing trade - or if he wants to trash the method - he might find a "window" with say (10 losing trades with say 5 in a row) and then prove the method is only 60% successful.

Going back to the GU - Pavel's chart is similar with him looking for a buy etc - and so far we have not had one trader wanting to sell more under the present price level.

That got to me to check out the Experts Forecasts in the other forum - and they are more bearish for the week with the average price of 1.5820. We have a few under 5700 and down to mid 5500 and 5600. I know what you think of them Brian so I will say no more. I suppose that's encouraging if we are seeing bullish movements  - we are not following the "players" favourites - ie the "shepple" ;-)

Finally - one so important point that you have mentioned Brian - ie  a scalp trade of 11 pips or even a better one once its achieved either target.That would be my trade with a RR of 2+ and hopefully it would happen under 30 mins.

Why bother waiting for 50 + or 140 pips - that can then be another 3 to 10 trades will RR's of 2 + on each one - and as far as I am concerned - with a higher probability factor due to it being "noise" and in a short time period.

Another one to ponder over - but please Oasis - I don't recommend it atm - stay with what your are happy with 

Regards 

Peter

Comment by raj patel on November 18, 2012 at 6:41pm

Peter, Totally agree that 3 to 5  year window will see all that is today disappear and new shorter term tools will be needed to remain in this business. Financial market was  noted as single tick entity that evolves with time, changing shape and size as it consumes more and more life forms endless amount of medicine will be needed to remain free its contamination. hope we can remain on top of this black hole.

As I said   earlier Cable has run its course on Friday if anything  i will not be  a buyer at this price or level  need to see it much lower by close   of trade on Monday. Up move is seen on late Monday to early Tuesday with rest to follow

Good Luck

Comment by Brian Twomey on November 18, 2012 at 7:38pm

Peter, Slow  Stochs invented in 1953, MACD 1980's ? RSI 1970's and on and on. They all worked well for those era's markets because wide point movements occurred daily so the indicators were attumed to those markets and were effective to achieve profits with high winning probabilities. Markets today are much slower and don't have the same wide point swings so settings on old indicators had to be changed to be effective. The key is the setting in line to match price movements. Without a change, you are dead to match prices and won't have winning percentages in your favor.

 The university you talked about is the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. I think that study goes back to the 90's if memory serves.

 My friend Raj as usual stated it well above. You know how I feel about the experts, currency analysts and crystal ball forecasters.

 

Comment by Honest Sarjono on November 19, 2012 at 1:23pm

Hi Oasis,

Did you see GU pullback from R1 ?

I have open sell on it with b/e at 1.5905 to prevent floating if the price rally to R2 for sell #2.

Comment by Oasis on November 19, 2012 at 2:14pm

Yes Honest, now there is USD news in less than an hour and I will not be in front of my computer. Just shifted my take profit down to R2.

Comment by Peter jcp on November 21, 2012 at 10:54pm

Hi Oasis - hows your GU trade going. Updated the chart I sent before and earlier today we made Brian target, Just wondered what you next thoughts or plan are and whether you still looking for your original target ??

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Oasis on November 22, 2012 at 2:38am

Hello Peter

You know what is perhaps the biggest asset a trader can have? - confidence in his analysis, decisiveness and to be able to execute the plan. Sadly I was lacking in all 3 so bailed out very quickly. I will now try to develop/acquire those skills.

Thanks for all your support.

Comment by Peter jcp on November 22, 2012 at 7:36am

Morning Oasis - your dead right with regarding having confidence in your analysis, decisiveness and being able to execute your plan.Don't worry that you are still developing and acquiring these skills - because I am sure 99% of all traders trading "live" all go through a similar scenario.

I certainly did - and still do many times with taking "swing" trades that I know i will leave on - and so i only end up doing it on lower "stakes" - whereas I have a lot more confidence in scalping and shorter term - simply because I have done so many and have it down to a "tee",

However - like all traders - I will make mistakes - and as Sir Gissachance recently said (and i love this one) you have to allow the market to make mistakes - when it gets it wrong and does not follow your analysis  - :-))

Whilst I am typing this just after the European Open at 7am UK time - I am scalp buying the EU as my set up said buy and I should target 10 pips plus with less than a 5 pip stop. I will post this separate but that's why I like 10 -30 min trades with the ability to get RR's of 2+.

The GU is doing similar to the EU atm - but i have not entered that scalp buy - simply because it early in my day and for am I like to get a few trades behind me. 

I have been like you and although I have scalped both ways on the GU over the week - I did not just buy at 1.5881( the price in your blog) and leave on. I notice now - and we all know hindsight is brilliant - that price only went down to 5883 this week ( even above your entry and well above your planned stop at 5861 ) and so far as been up over 80 + pips

As it stands on the GU now - it needs to break through resistances at it current high and stay above it supports at 5915-20 and a minor one at 5940 ish. Breaking through resistances higher will mean it might try your original target - and then the other way -falling through supports - might mean its not on;-))

Meanwhile have a great day and I am absolutely sure - you will get there on your trading journey

Regards 

Peter

PS - only 8 pips on that first scalp - still a profit and a RR of 1.6 not 2+

Comment by Oasis on November 22, 2012 at 4:19pm

Thank you so much Peter. This what I love about this place - You and so many others are so genuine and supportive. Its people like you who make this place such a pleasure to be associated with. The quote from Sir Gissachance is absolutely the best I have heard. I will assume that he will allow me to use it.

I am really glad that you have perfected your system and it works for you. I hope to get where you and so many others are one day.

Regards

Comment by Sir Gissachance on November 22, 2012 at 10:02pm

Dear Oasis,

Please feel free to Havard reference then use any of my terms or catchphrases dear fellow and a complete joy it is to read your post and the charts and comments here.

Best Regards,

Sir Gissachance (PPND)

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