Comment by Peter jcp on August 8, 2012 at 8:08pm

Hi Kathia - first impression is everything looks good. As you say with the good RR and supports etc etc.

My first concern though is your trend line - mine does not match up the same and so if we stay over 96 55/60 then the 96 80 buy would be great and you should be in your up channel

However if that supports lets go I would be worried that price would fall under your stop down to the 96 25 to 96 40 area,

It would be a shame if you get stopped out and you could say go for a a larger stop - or even better take a tighter stop and try that first .

You have 2 resistances at 97 10 and 97 40 on the way to your target - so they might assist you on catching a retrace for another buy as well as long as the supports hold.

I think the key will be if 96 55/60 lets go - and if it does I think then your stop would not hold and you would be taken out ?

That is only my opinion and so please don't let me put you off

PS - Check your trendline off a 15 min and 30 mins as well

Regards

Peter 

Comment by Kathia Lavie on August 8, 2012 at 10:26pm

Hi Peter,
Thank you very much for your comment. It is good to communicate with other traders.
Support and resistance lines, I feel, are a matter of perspective – each trader will set those as he/she thinks and as the lines meet with other aspects.
The stop loss is so tight because, the correction for that wave may go further, to maximum fibo level 38.2 where a new buy may be set, and since it is a short term trade, a big stop loss would not make sense (a bigger stop loss would transform it into a medium short trade).
This analysis is for short term only.
I already have a longer term EJ trade based on fundamentals (with no stop loss).
I don’t have a trend line there… just a simple asymmetrical triangle.
Personally, I don’t work off lower than the one hour timeframe as I feel there is a lot of noise and false signals off lower than this timeframe. Real movement, the result of fundamentals can be seen on the higher timeframes and so my analysis is based on this.
Kathia.

Comment by talisman on August 9, 2012 at 4:19am

at your target area do you get out or do you tighten your stop and let the market take you out?

this is a logical and good looking trade.

Comment by Peter jcp on August 9, 2012 at 10:52am

Hi Kathia - well I have been trading the EU this morning - but kept an eye on the EJ.

I am a intraday short term trader and so work more on 5 pip stops and make my bread and butter in the "noise"

I could see some nice buy scalps last night and early on the EJ - but we had high 97 28 - then a lower high at 97 24 - which was a sign to sell on small frames

As soon as 97 went and then your entry point - the hope for another buy lay at 96-55/60.

Unfortunately  - that did not hold - similar EU could not hold at 2330 - and then the drop killed your stop

So - in conclusion - I now hope I did put you off - or made you think about grabbing some profits over 97 20 ;-)

Either way - lets review it again for the US session - similar with EU

Regards

Peter

Comment by Peter jcp on August 9, 2012 at 11:10am

Hi Kathia - sorry forgot to mention re your comments on the fundamentals - or "funny mentals" as some might say. When I first got into forex trading over 8 yrs ago now - I though having a Economics honours degree and also accountancy training - that would really help me as a trader.

Well the accountancy does - as i continually target small wins with tight stops - ie 5 pip stop 1- -30 pip targets - ie RR 's of 2 to 6 - but the economics is a complete waste of time for me as a day trader.

If you are investing - or taking longer term position trades for months etc - agree the fundies are needed and economics etc will help your decision making. After all its the countries economic strengths and weaknesses that determine so many factors including their currencies price rates.

However on a normal day to day basis - forget the fundamentals - all then main players know the news in advance and manipulate price to suit their requirements etc and to suit to fit in with news announcements.

Its a wonder the FSA and other bodies cannot see all the manipulation that goes on in the daily market. To quote one of my own phrases - "every move is a stop hunt", So for intraday trading technicals way outperform fundamentals - but not normal technical analysis based on normal charts - special analysis - along with game plan theory - ie were is all the money short or long - so any big player  can go the opposite way and take it ;-)

I dont think you would read a lot about this etc - but I can assure you it goes on 

Regards

Peter

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