GoLD uP tHeN doWn, gBp uP - juLy 16 - 20

Depressing news from Europe kept market alert as EURO fell to a 2-year low. About 170 top German educationist/economist lodged protest over Merkel’s nod for allowing direct re-capitalizing of European banks, which will hit tax payer’s purse.
Italian rating cut by Moody’s is another indication that European worries are far from over and further confirms that its economy has enormous risk.
Minutes of last FED FOMC meeting had nothing new to add, which means that for more easing US economy has to further deteriorate. This week’s UA data reduces the probability of easing as last month’s wholesale price surged sharply.
Last week’s Chinese economic slowdown though positive due to the expected number, added to the global worry as the economy grew by 7.6 pct against 8.1 pct growth in 1st quarter. Current pace of growth is good enough to keep its domestic market active, but high Chinese growth was one factor that was that was providing a helping hand to the global slowdown.
LIBOR cheating is one huge development that is not getting proper attention, as market avoided reacting to the news probably because all major financial institutions are involved in some way or the other.
LIBOR rate rigging that involves world’s biggest and most powerful banks is in a fix as cross-border investigation is going on for fixing of inter-bank lending rate. FED was informed by an unidentified employee of one of the London based bank in 2008, the bank in London is said to have released the document confirming the news.
Basically, British Bank Association announces the rates that are fixed by a select panel of banks through polls is calculated and published in for several currencies on daily basis. The fixing of benchmark rates helps to calculate payments equivalent of over USD 350 trillion worth of financial institutions that includes mortgage, derivatives, bank loans and credit cards.
Investors are fast losing their confidence in the banking sector. Since this rigging of interest rates has been going on since 2007-08 it may not be easy to assess the damage, but some of estimates based of calculation by research institutes suggest that LIBOR rates were off by 30 to 40 basis point.
I will not be surprised if the benchmark interest rate scandal hit the market anytime that affects the price at which consumer and corporations around the world borrows funds. This is another slap on the face of financial sector/regulator/rating agencies.
Market will continue to focus on developments in Europe, which remains key direction provider to the financial market’s move this week. European and US economic data will also be keenly watched for next Central Bank move.

Last Week - Monday July 09-13

GOLD @ $ 1583.50 = The move was perfect is line of my call hitting the top around $ 1622 before exhausting to hit the downside given target of mid 70’s. Now is gold again nearing a crucial level, but may not have the potential to penetrate below $ 1545 and may find stiff support around $ 1550-60. Suspect clear break above $ 1596 risk for a test of important resistance at $ 1610 break here could challenge $ 1625 and push beyond could risk for $ 1648.

EURO @ 1.2285 = The dip below is sharper than expectation, as Euro was unable to recover after falling below the major support level of 1.2480. This down move could continue if Euro is unable to move beyond 1.2360 for test of major resistance at 1.2480. Break below 1.2180 risk for a test of 1.2050. Ranges for the week 1.2050 - 1.2480.

GBP @ 1.5486 = Cable did hit 1.5720, but as per my last week’s post that 1.5740 will be difficult to crack, GBP fell sharply to hit the downside target of 1.5570, but extended its loss by another 100 pips. On the downside 1^st major support is at 1.5440 only break risk for test of 1.5370. However, bias will remain on the upside, which means preferred trading strategy would be to pick Cable at support levels that will provide profit opportunity. Break of 1.5570 is required for a test of 1.5680. Ranges for the week 1.5350 – 1.5720

JPY @ 79.66 = Last week I said Yen has resistance 79.20, bounced back from the given level, I also said that break of 80.10 is required for more Yen losses, it recovered from 80.08 to trade in narrow range. This week again views remain unchanged and looking for a break of 81.10 for 80.80. Ranges for the week 78.80 – 81.20.

CHF @ 0.9772 = Since I expect Swiss Franc to trade in line with Euro, which is closed to 1.20 parity. SFR could not get breathing space and had to follow in line with Euro to weaken sharply. Similar trend will be witnessed. Swiss currency needs gain beyond 0.9705 for 0.9620 or else break of 0.9855 risks for 0.9975. Ranges for the week 0.9620 – 0.9995

Tags: http://asadcmka.blogspot.com/

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Comment by Manish Patadia on July 15, 2012 at 12:39pm: for the coming what in gold mr asad

Comment by asad rizvi on July 17, 2012 at 6:38am: GMT 13:40 - Buy Euro around 1.2210-15 STOPS 1.2170 for 1.2265-70

GMT 13:37 - I am bullish for Cable and would prefer safe play and hence would try to short around 1.5655-60

GMT 13:13- Book your profit around....... GBP 1.5598 - EURO 1.2241...Good start tweek

GMT 13:04 - GOLD $ 1591.50 = Book you profit around $ 1592-94 & fill your pocket with $ 12-14

GMT 12:33 - looking for test of 1.2245-50 & 1.5580 or 1.5610

GMT 11:53 - .2170 is holding for the moment, which is the key level. Market ia waiting for US data for more clues. We could see another test of 1.2240-50 zones

GMT 09:00 - GOLD @ $ 1584 = Buy Gold around $ 1580-82 STOPS $ 1577 for $ 1592-94

GMT 06:62 - GBP 1.5560 = Looking to good to test 1.5535-40 zones

Comment by asad rizvi on July 17, 2012 at 6:40am: Tuesday , July 17 -

GMT 01:40 - EURO @ 1.2310 = Current ongoing rally in the Asian session should not surpass 1.2330-35 zones and should soon exhause for re-test of 1.2270-80 or esle 1.2355-60 before down again

GMT 01:45 - GBP 1.5670 = Sell around 1.5670-75 STOPS 1.5698 for 1.5630-35

Comment by Manish Patadia on July 17, 2012 at 7:35am: what today in gold possible break of 1600 n plze add me on urs subcription blog i m ready to pay for that

Comment by victor charles on July 17, 2012 at 8:39am: hello sir Asad, i sent u a mail about my subscription , but are yet to reply me

Comment by ikwoche on July 17, 2012 at 10:57pm: good day sir. its quite sad that after observing for months and now i want to go live, you are suddenly not reachable.. is there anything i can do to get your daily guide on trade. thank you.

Comment by asad rizvi on July 18, 2012 at 12:41pm: Wednesday July 18........................................................................................................

GMT 01:50 GOLD @ $ 1584 = Gold should not surpass $ 1588-90 and risk is for drop to $ 1577, break encourages for $ 1572 zones and $ 1566 is the next key level. Only break above $ 1595 downmove.

Comment by asad rizvi on July 18, 2012 at 5:07pm: Wednesday July 18...You may ffind some useful TIP..................

GMT 14:29 - AUD 1.0344 = Traget met book your profit. 1.0365-70 is the next level to watch a break of 1.0300 will push AUD to 1.0410, which is not a favoured scenario.

GMT 13:49 - Try Short around $ 1580 apply STOP if $ 1585 surrenders

GMT 13:30 - EURO @ 1.2240 = This rally may find resistane around 1.2275-80 and and break is required for 1.3215-20 or else we could see another dip to 1.2190. How move 1.2250 is the 1st strong barrier.

GMT 10:10 GOLD @ $1577 = Nothong new in GOLD, follow my morning comments. Please also note that i did not encourage buying of Euro today. I prefred selling strartegy though upside fizzled around 1.2290's. Long in Cable may survive 1.5580 STOPS, though could test 1.5570, but square on rise above 1.5605 + with minor loss

GMT 09:41 - EURO@ 1.2250 = market trend has changed during last 60 minutes and we could be heading lower. Wait for my next post...........

GMT 08:54 - GBP 1.5633 = Cable diped on 7-2 vote a bit surprising against market expectatio of 9-0. But what difference does it make. This provided good buying opportunity around or below 1.5620, hope you went long now book your profit around 1.5662-67. Apply STOP if 1.5580 surrenders

GMT 07:30 - GOLD @ $ 1583.60 = I am sure eraly birds may have taken profit on gold podition now strategy remains unchanged. I prefer selling around $ 1586-88 for qucik profit with STOPS $ 1593

GMT 02:18 - AUD 1.0301 = Should hold 1.0265 for a re-test of 1.0320-25, break is likley to push the Australian currency towards 1.0340-45. Needs to fall below 1.0220 for current rally to ease.

GMT - 02:10 - GBP @ 1.5653 = Initially could be bought around 1.5620 levels and should hold 1.5575-80 levels for a test of 1.5692-98. If surges beyond 1.5710, I will not hesitate to pick the top and sell Cable for 60-70 pips drop

GMT - 02:02 EURO @ 1.2294 = Should stay above 1.2250 and could see a test of 1.2340-45. Prefer picking and the top and Sell Euro for a dip.

GMT - 01:50 GOLD @ $ 1583.80 = Gold should not surpass $ 1588-90 and risk is for drop to $ 1577, break encourages for $ 1572 zones and $ 1566 is the next key level. Only break above $ 1595 downmove.

Comment by asad rizvi on July 19, 2012 at 10:15am: Thursday July 19..........

GMT 1:12 - GOLD @ $ 1576.50 = Gold has potential to make another $ 5-7 gain before easing if stays above $ 1572 levels before easing or esle $ 1565.

GMT 1:20 - EURO @ 1.2282 = Euro is likley to find support around 1.2255-60 and we could see the European currency visting 1.2320 levels before New York opening or else 1.2235

GMT 1:27 - GBP @ 1.5650 = I am not comfortable with Cable today break of 1.5620 risk for test of 1.5590. Therefore any move beyond 1.5555-60 will be picked to sell as long as it fails to break 1.5698

GMT 1:34 - AUD @ 1.0365 = Still looking good for more gains as long as it hold 1.0310-20 support level. Break of 1.0403 risk for test of 1.0420-25 zones

GMT 3:55 - GBP @ 1.5655 = May stretch a bit. Prefer short around 1.5675, which give more space to STOPS...Cheers for the day

GMT 7:16 - GBP @ 1.5680 = OK, the small move has occured Sell GBP around 1.5685-90 STOPS if 1.5725 surrenders

GMT 7:20 - GOLD @ $ 1584 = Book your profit around $ 1584-86 and go short around $ 1587-89 STOPS $ 1593

GMT 7:23 - EURO @ 1.2318 = Book you profit around 1.2320-25 and godshort around 1.2340-50 zones

GMT 7:32 - AUD @ 1.0413 = Book your profit around 1.0413-18 and wait for next post..........

GMT GBP @ 1.5640 = Book you GBP profit around 1.5632-38

GoLD uP tHeN doWn, gBp uP - juLy 16 - 20

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