EurO & GoLD tO ProbE thE ToP – apRiL 13

So far it’s been an exciting week as all 12-FED voting members spoke on different occasions and spoke their heart out about monetary policy. Though Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen had a dovish approach like Fed Chairman Ban Bernanke, but the remaining members were Hawkish in their approach.

Interestingly, my observation is that they all were talking on the same wave length supporting lose monetary policy. They are of view that reducing unemployment is their top priority, if job condition deteriorates and inflation is manageable then accommodation will be recommended or added and if US economy continues to prosper and inflation becomes a monster they may have to go reverse their action. The message is clear that they will not act in haste. Fed voters will be keenly watching future data’s before deciding their next line of action.

China’s Q1 GDP data is out and 8.1 pct growth is quite disappointing versus 8.9 pct last quarter growth that confirms slow export growth and low domestic demand making case for easing. But in another development, a report was released yesterday by PBoC, which stated that Chinese bank lending in March jumped to Yuan 1.01 trillion ($ 160 billion) up by Yuan 332 billion, which could mean no easing and no rate cut at least in near term.

US Dollar that fell yesterday on no negative news emerging from Europe was pushed further down on mixed US economic data, as US jobless claim rose to 380.000, but narrowing of trade deficit was surprising.

Today, market should start discussing China’s slow growth, which is considered a major driving force for the global economy. If we combine the two and discuss/compare US economic growth and China’s fall, China’s slowdown is bad for Australian and European economy. This is surely positive news for US Dollar.

Gold @ $ 1674.80 = Gold may have topped for the moment and suggest selling around $ 1677-78 with STOP LOSS $ 1682. A drop below $ 1770 will encourage for $ 1667 and break of this level would confirm fall towards $ 1660. However, on the upside break $ 1688 will delay the down move.

Euro @= 1.3170= Although we may have seen Euro’s top, but I will allow another run up towards 1.3215 only on break of 1.3190-95 zone, which may not be easy to crack. I am looking for dip to 1.3140 and break below 1.3135 would encourage for 1.3105. However, break of 1.3240 will delay the down move.

GBP @ = 1.5940 = Cable should struggle to move beyond 1.5965-70, any up move should fizzle out around 1.5985’s. A break of 1.5930 would encourage for a test of 1.5910 or probably 1.5880.

US DollaR tO EaSe – GoLD to GaiN – ApR 12

http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/blogs/us-dollar-to-ease-gold-to...

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10 members like this

Comment by asad rizvi on April 13, 2012 at 6:14pm: And if 1648 breaks - 1640 - 1631...GL

Comment by Ziad on April 13, 2012 at 6:56pm: Mr. Risvi - Congratulations again. Deadly accurate and more precise than a sniper's rifle. Between today and yesterday. Long @ 1652 till 1675 then short @ 1675 to 1660. You have singlehandedly rebutted all technicals, forecasts and analysts' opinions that said Gold upmove will continue today.

Thank you for supporting all of us.

Can we borrow your crystal ball ;)

Have a nice week-end!!!

Comment by asad rizvi on April 13, 2012 at 7:05pm: Mr.Ziad, I am always grateful for the kind words ….Enjoy your weekend....Asad

Comment by asad rizvi on April 13, 2012 at 7:09pm: Leon, I am deeply honored....Regards Asad

Comment by Therese on April 13, 2012 at 8:31pm: Thanx for your good advice this week. You are the best!! Have a nice weekend :)

Comment by Jason on April 13, 2012 at 9:58pm: HI Sir.

Just woke up as I have gone to bed earlier.

Think I have never seen anyone call the GOLD this way.

You are incredible. Have learnt so much from you Sir.

Looking forward to seeing your postings and new views for next week over the weekend.

Thank you for all your efforts and have a good weekend !

Comment by asad rizvi on April 14, 2012 at 5:14am: Therese, Thats Very Encouraging. Thank You....Regards

Comment by asad rizvi on April 14, 2012 at 5:22am: Jason, Thank you for supporting me from the very beginning….Best Asad

Comment by Jason on April 14, 2012 at 6:42am: Hi Sir

Thank you for your response which I am surprised. Thought you should be getting some rest today.

I am still working in office in Singapore. With the amount of time, energy and efforts spent trying to do all these postings here, the least a human can do is to show appreciation and support for all your efforts. Do not think too much of it. I think I must say I am gratified and honoured to be able to make an aquaintance of you (even if its only on line).

Have read much about you on your blog and understand you come with some pedigree and have vast extensive experience in the financial markets.

If you do not mind, I also share with you a little of myself (so you will know why I say the above).

I have been a propriety trader (fx) for quite many years until I left the industry to join my family in the business. With all these crisis in the last 5 years, the business environment has been extremely challenging...with all the globalisation as well as the competitive nature in Singapore. But we will continue to strive hard and hold on...

During my years as a trader, I have seen many characters and also have the opportunity and honour to make aquaintances of many big name and famous traders / investors (although I do not know most of them very well). I have been fortunate to know the famous American Larry Williams (he will still sometimes reply to my email queries if he feels like it), Robert Pretcher (spoken to both of them before) and Jim Rodgers (her daughter is my daughter's ex-classmate in the kindergarten school so I do know him personally to a certain extent). With my experiences with all these successful traders and other traders in the markets, I must say that you are one of those very few people who are willing to share your opinion and time on the markets (time is usually a precious commodity for famous people). I am also truly gratified with your honesty in your postings.

The other thing I am truly amazed with you is the ability to feel the markets. You told me you dont use chartings. One of my ex-bosses (i wont mention names but he used to be a legend in the trading circle with a swiss bank here) can also feel the markets like you. But in those days when we trade, we are able to move vast sums of money so it is not surprising that we can be very profitable due to our financial muscle. But when I left trading and started trading on my own (been some 5 years), I have never been able to make money consistently. Maybe it is due to being a retail trader at the mercy of big guys from these institutions. So when you told me you dont use charts Sir, I must take my hat off you as I am truly amazed with your trading accuracy (especially in the GOLD and EURO). To be honest Sir, I have never seen anything like this before in my trading experience as you seem to be able to feel the entire market on your own. Even the famous Larry Williams used charting (learnt some techniques from him).

So Sir, with your ability to trade the markets with such high level of accuracy and with your pedigree and background in the financial markets, I can only use the word "RESPECT" to describe you. For a person like you (I believe you have many business commitments) to spend the kind of efforts (all these postings we have seen), energy and patience trying to make all these postings, I must say I am truly humbled by your honesty, effort and most importantly of all, HUMILITY.

You have been extremely patient, obliging and selfless in sharing all your knowledge that you know of the markets with your daily and weekly postings. Although I may not have benefitted directly much so far (at least it keeps me from losing so far), I must admit I have learnt a lot from you about patience and discipline in trading.

I am not writing the above to apple-polish you Sir.

What I wrote is truly from the bottom of my heart. You have been really amazing and I have only good things to say about you from what I see (I even told pixta yesterday on a blog post that I have not seen anyone make calls on GOLD this way even during my years of trading in the dealing room). I can only say Sir, "Long may you continue your postings and share your knowledge in this same way as long as you can". I am very sure a lot of participants here will feel the same way and I am very sure many of them will benefit greatly from all this.

I hope I am not too long-winded with all this typing as I feel that this is the least I can do Sir, to describe you and say a big "THANK YOU" to everything you have done so far. Keep it up !.

I will end my posting here. I hereby wish you and your family happiness, good health and continuing prosperity.

Looking forward to your weekly posting tomorrow and may everyone who read or learn from you continue to benefit in the trading week ahead.

Thank you Sir and have a good weekend !