With no major happenings, as market activity has been thin due Easter holidays, it was late night Bernanke’s fever and rumor of quantitative easing (QE) that dominated the market. USD remained under mild pressure as perception is that Fed Chairman normally does not speak in favor of US Dollar.
Interestingly he did not utter a word on economy, interest rates or QE and his complete focus was on regulatory issues, he did not look comfortable and wants more financial stability especially in shadow banking areas.
Market still disappointed with the US unemployment number sold USD, though I expect them to realize that job number is not as bad. Another factor that did not help US Dollar was the closure of European market that halted flow of European news, which went against USD.
But one big factor that must have mattered and weakened US Dollar was Reuter’s poll that suggested that out of 15 primary dealers 11 expect QE3 in June and out of those 10 are expecting QE3 in June. Such news/information often works well in thin market condition.
Market will remain cautious this week as quite a few FED officials will be speaking on various occasions and I expect them to be responsible, as nothing has changed. I still believe that US economy is performing well and therefore, FED is not insane to waste one of its most precious monetary weapons to fulfill the wishes of 10- or 11 primary dealers.
Gold @ $ 1654.50 = The rally can extend up to $ 1656. Prefer selling around $ 1655-56 STOPS $ 1661 for $ 1648 or $ 1644
Euro @= 1.3140 = Likely hold around 1.3105 in Asian session for a test of 1.3150-55 and only break would encourage for 1.3178, if seen sell Euro. Once 1.3080 surrenders, Euro will resume its downside move.
GBP @ = 1.5928 = Cable looks good to test 1.5945-50. Beyond that level I will remain cautious, needs to break 1.5980-85 for big up move, which is not a favored move. Downside break of 1.5870 confirms more losses.
UsD uP, GoLD uP BuT LateR DowN - ApR 09-13